Variations of the particulate organic carbon and nitrogen （POC/PN） along the PN section in the East China Sea （ECS） were examined based on POC/PN data obtained in September 2002. A comparison with others work indi...Variations of the particulate organic carbon and nitrogen （POC/PN） along the PN section in the East China Sea （ECS） were examined based on POC/PN data obtained in September 2002. A comparison with others work indicates that POC is the highest in summer, followed by autumn and spring, and the lowest in winter. Generally, POC concentration decreases seawards, and the in situ productivity in September plays an important role in POC distribution. POC in the PN section is composed of terrestrial, resuspended, in situ produced carbon and carbon originated fi＇om the Kuroshio waters. The Changjiang River effects the ECS in the PN section, but the influence is mainly minimiged beyond 123.5° E because of barrier effect. The impact of Kuroshio subsurface water （KSSW） over shelf break can also effect POC distribution, with high POC concentration there.展开更多
The low-frequency variability of the North Equatorial Current （NEC） bifurcation during 1958 to 2001 was investigated with the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA） 2.0.2 dataset. In agreement with recent observati...The low-frequency variability of the North Equatorial Current （NEC） bifurcation during 1958 to 2001 was investigated with the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA） 2.0.2 dataset. In agreement with recent observations, the NEC bifurcation latitude （NBL） shifted northward as depth increases, from about 12.7°N near the surface to about 17.1°N at depths around 500 m for the annual average. This study reveals that the interannual variations of NBL, with five years period, mainly focused on the upper 500 m with amplitude increasing as depth increased. The NBL shifted southward in the past 40 years, which was more significant in the subsurface at more than -0.02°/a. The NBL manifests itself in the transports of NMK （NEC-Mindanao Current （MC）-Kuroshio） system in strong relationship with MC （0.7） and Kuroshio （-0.7）. The EOF analysis of meridional velocity off the Philippine coast shows that the first mode, explaining 62% of variance and 5 years period, was highly correlated with the southward shift of NBL with coefficient at about 0.75. The southward shift of NBL consists with the weakening of MC and strengthening of Kuroshio, which exhibited linear trends at -0.24Sv/a and 0.11Sv/a. Both interannual variation and trend of NBL were closely related to the variation of NMK system.展开更多
In this study, the predictability of the El Nino-South Oscillation(ENSO) in an operational prediction model from the perspective of initial errors is diagnosed using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Cente...In this study, the predictability of the El Nino-South Oscillation(ENSO) in an operational prediction model from the perspective of initial errors is diagnosed using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center System Model,BCC;SM1.1(m). Forecast skills during the different ENSO phases are analyzed and it is shown that the ENSO forecasts appear to be more challenging during the developing phase, compared to the decay phase. During ENSO development, the SST prediction errors are significantly negative and cover a large area in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, thus limiting the model skill in predicting the intensity of El Nino. The large-scale SST errors, at their early stage, are generated gradually in terms of negative anomalies in the subsurface ocean temperature over the central-western equatorial Pacific,featuring an error evolutionary process similar to that of El Nino decay and the transition to the La Nina growth phase.Meanwhile, for short lead-time ENSO predictions, the initial wind errors begin to play an increasing role, particularly in linking with the subsurface heat content errors in the central-western Pacific. By comparing the multiple samples of initial fields in the model, it is clearly found that poor SST predictions of the Nino-3.4 region are largely due to contributions of the initial errors in certain specific locations in the tropical Pacific. This demonstrates that those sensitive areas for initial fields in ENSO prediction are fairly consistent in both previous ideal experiments and our operational predictions,indicating the need for targeted observations to further improve operational forecasts of ENSO.展开更多
In order to quantify the influence of external forcings on the predictability limit using observational data,the author introduced an algorithm of the conditional nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(CNLLE)method.The eff...In order to quantify the influence of external forcings on the predictability limit using observational data,the author introduced an algorithm of the conditional nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(CNLLE)method.The effectiveness of this algorithm is validated and compared with the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE)and signal-to-noise ratio methods using a coupled Lorenz model.The results show that the CNLLE method is able to capture the slow error growth constrained by external forcings,therefore,it can quantify the predictability limit induced by the external forcings.On this basis,a preliminary attempt was made to apply this method to measure the influence of ENSO on the predictability limit for both atmospheric and oceanic variable fields.The spatial distribution of the predictability limit induced by ENSO is similar to that arising from the initial conditions calculated by the NLLE method.This similarity supports ENSO as the major predictable signal for weather and climate prediction.In addition,a ratio of predictability limit(RPL)calculated by the CNLLE method to that calculated by the NLLE method was proposed.The RPL larger than 1 indicates that the external forcings can significantly benefit the long-term predictability limit.For instance,ENSO can effectively extend the predictability limit arising from the initial conditions of sea surface temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean by approximately four months,as well as the predictability limit of sea level pressure over the eastern and western Pacific Ocean.Moreover,the impact of ENSO on the geopotential height predictability limit is primarily confined to the troposphere.展开更多
文摘Variations of the particulate organic carbon and nitrogen （POC/PN） along the PN section in the East China Sea （ECS） were examined based on POC/PN data obtained in September 2002. A comparison with others work indicates that POC is the highest in summer, followed by autumn and spring, and the lowest in winter. Generally, POC concentration decreases seawards, and the in situ productivity in September plays an important role in POC distribution. POC in the PN section is composed of terrestrial, resuspended, in situ produced carbon and carbon originated fi＇om the Kuroshio waters. The Changjiang River effects the ECS in the PN section, but the influence is mainly minimiged beyond 123.5° E because of barrier effect. The impact of Kuroshio subsurface water （KSSW） over shelf break can also effect POC distribution, with high POC concentration there.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.NSFC40890152the Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No.KZCX2-YW-Q11-02
文摘The low-frequency variability of the North Equatorial Current （NEC） bifurcation during 1958 to 2001 was investigated with the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA） 2.0.2 dataset. In agreement with recent observations, the NEC bifurcation latitude （NBL） shifted northward as depth increases, from about 12.7°N near the surface to about 17.1°N at depths around 500 m for the annual average. This study reveals that the interannual variations of NBL, with five years period, mainly focused on the upper 500 m with amplitude increasing as depth increased. The NBL shifted southward in the past 40 years, which was more significant in the subsurface at more than -0.02°/a. The NBL manifests itself in the transports of NMK （NEC-Mindanao Current （MC）-Kuroshio） system in strong relationship with MC （0.7） and Kuroshio （-0.7）. The EOF analysis of meridional velocity off the Philippine coast shows that the first mode, explaining 62% of variance and 5 years period, was highly correlated with the southward shift of NBL with coefficient at about 0.75. The southward shift of NBL consists with the weakening of MC and strengthening of Kuroshio, which exhibited linear trends at -0.24Sv/a and 0.11Sv/a. Both interannual variation and trend of NBL were closely related to the variation of NMK system.
基金jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring,Early WarningPrevention of Major Natural Disaster(Grant No.2018YFC1506000)the China National Science(Grant Nos.41606019,41975094,and 41706016)。
文摘In this study, the predictability of the El Nino-South Oscillation(ENSO) in an operational prediction model from the perspective of initial errors is diagnosed using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center System Model,BCC;SM1.1(m). Forecast skills during the different ENSO phases are analyzed and it is shown that the ENSO forecasts appear to be more challenging during the developing phase, compared to the decay phase. During ENSO development, the SST prediction errors are significantly negative and cover a large area in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, thus limiting the model skill in predicting the intensity of El Nino. The large-scale SST errors, at their early stage, are generated gradually in terms of negative anomalies in the subsurface ocean temperature over the central-western equatorial Pacific,featuring an error evolutionary process similar to that of El Nino decay and the transition to the La Nina growth phase.Meanwhile, for short lead-time ENSO predictions, the initial wind errors begin to play an increasing role, particularly in linking with the subsurface heat content errors in the central-western Pacific. By comparing the multiple samples of initial fields in the model, it is clearly found that poor SST predictions of the Nino-3.4 region are largely due to contributions of the initial errors in certain specific locations in the tropical Pacific. This demonstrates that those sensitive areas for initial fields in ENSO prediction are fairly consistent in both previous ideal experiments and our operational predictions,indicating the need for targeted observations to further improve operational forecasts of ENSO.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42225501 and 42105059)the National Key Scientific and Tech-nological Infrastructure project“Earth System Numerical Simula-tion Facility”(EarthLab).
文摘In order to quantify the influence of external forcings on the predictability limit using observational data,the author introduced an algorithm of the conditional nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(CNLLE)method.The effectiveness of this algorithm is validated and compared with the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE)and signal-to-noise ratio methods using a coupled Lorenz model.The results show that the CNLLE method is able to capture the slow error growth constrained by external forcings,therefore,it can quantify the predictability limit induced by the external forcings.On this basis,a preliminary attempt was made to apply this method to measure the influence of ENSO on the predictability limit for both atmospheric and oceanic variable fields.The spatial distribution of the predictability limit induced by ENSO is similar to that arising from the initial conditions calculated by the NLLE method.This similarity supports ENSO as the major predictable signal for weather and climate prediction.In addition,a ratio of predictability limit(RPL)calculated by the CNLLE method to that calculated by the NLLE method was proposed.The RPL larger than 1 indicates that the external forcings can significantly benefit the long-term predictability limit.For instance,ENSO can effectively extend the predictability limit arising from the initial conditions of sea surface temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean by approximately four months,as well as the predictability limit of sea level pressure over the eastern and western Pacific Ocean.Moreover,the impact of ENSO on the geopotential height predictability limit is primarily confined to the troposphere.
