在分析2016年7月28日—8月2日新疆西部罕见大暴雨过程环流形势和影响系统的基础上,利用基于拉格朗日方法的轨迹模式HYSPLIT,应用GDAS资料,模拟计算了大暴雨期间不同区域不同高度的水汽输送轨迹、主要通道及不同源地的水汽贡献。结果表明...在分析2016年7月28日—8月2日新疆西部罕见大暴雨过程环流形势和影响系统的基础上,利用基于拉格朗日方法的轨迹模式HYSPLIT,应用GDAS资料,模拟计算了大暴雨期间不同区域不同高度的水汽输送轨迹、主要通道及不同源地的水汽贡献。结果表明:(1)200 h Pa高空偏西急流、700 h Pa和850 h Pa低空偏东急流及辐合线和500 h Pa稳定"两脊一槽"环流是大暴雨产生的天气背景;(2)大暴雨过程中阿克苏地区北部、伊犁河谷地区和博州地区东部1500、3000和5000 m水汽输送轨迹、主要通道及不同源地的水汽贡献存在差异,其中,阿克苏地区北部1500、3000、5000 m水汽分别主要来自中亚地区、中亚地区、地中海北部,水汽贡献分别占该高度水汽的38%、46%、48%;伊犁河谷地区1500、3000、5000 m水汽分别主要来自哈萨克斯坦、哈萨克斯坦、黑海南部,水汽贡献分别占该高度水汽的100%、50%、68%;博州地区东部1500、3000、5000 m水汽分别主要来自西西伯利亚、中亚地区、东欧,水汽贡献分别占该高度水汽的58%、54%、82%。水汽在输送过程中高度多变,以偏东和偏南路径为主输送到大暴雨区上空;(3)欧洲大陆、西西伯利亚、中亚地区等陆地及黑海、里海等海洋是此次大暴雨水汽主要来源。南疆低层偏东风和辐合线在水汽的聚集及向上输送中发挥了重要作用,高空急流产生的次级环流的下沉气流在将高空水汽向下输送中扮演了重要角色。展开更多
利用ECMWF集合预报对2016年6月11—12日发生在长三角地区的一次暴雨过程进行了分析,并对集合"好""坏"两类成员的预报结果进行了对比。分析表明:集合预报对本次暴雨过程具有比较好的预报能力,集合平均预报效果要优...利用ECMWF集合预报对2016年6月11—12日发生在长三角地区的一次暴雨过程进行了分析,并对集合"好""坏"两类成员的预报结果进行了对比。分析表明:集合预报对本次暴雨过程具有比较好的预报能力,集合平均预报效果要优于确定性预报,其雨量预报的增大趋势对暴雨的预报具有一定的指示意义;高分位数集合成员对于暴雨预报有比较好的参考价值,尤其是在预报时效还较长的时候,如果连续多起报时次高分位数集合成员都预报出暴雨,以及低分位数集合成员的雨量预报呈现逐渐增大趋势,预示着暴雨的可能性在增大,有助于暴雨预报的决策;对天气系统和气象要素的预报差异是造成"好""坏"两类集合成员对本次暴雨过程模拟效果差异的主要原因,对500 h Pa高空槽、850 h Pa低涡及其切变线、西南气流和偏东气流的模拟是决定"好""坏"两类集合成员模拟效果的关键因素。展开更多
With increasing resolution in numerical weather prediction （NWP） models, the model topography can be described with finer resolution and includes steeper slopes. Consequently, negative effects of the traditional ter...With increasing resolution in numerical weather prediction （NWP） models, the model topography can be described with finer resolution and includes steeper slopes. Consequently, negative effects of the traditional terrain-following vertical coordinate on high-resolution numerical simulations become more distinct due to larger errors in the pressure gradient force （PGF） calculation and associated distortions of the gravity wave along the coordinate surface. A series of numerical experiments have been conducted in this study, including idealized test cases of gravity wave simulation over a complex mountain, error analysis of the PGF estimation over a real topography, and a suite of real-data test cases. The GRAPES-Meso model is utilized with four different coordinates, i.e., the traditional terrain-following vertical coordinate proposed by Gal-Chen and Somerville （hereinafter referred to as the Gal.C.S coordinate）, the one-scale smoothed level （SLEVE1）, the two-scale smoothed level （SLEVE2）, and the COSINE （COS） coordinates. The results of the gravity wave simulation indicate that the GRAPES-Meso model generally can reproduce the mountain-induced gravity waves, which are consistent with the analytic solution. However, the shapes, vertical structures, and intensities Of the waves are better simulated with the SLEVE2 coordinate than with the other three coordinates. The model with the COS coordinate also performs well, except at lower levels where it is not as effective as the SLEVE2 coordinate in suppressing the PGF errors. In contrast, the gravity waves simulated in both the Gal.C.S and SLEVE1 coordinates are relatively distorted. The estimated PGF errors in a rest atmosphere over the real complex topography are much smaller （even disappear at the middle and upper levels） in the GRAPES-Meso model using the SLEVE2 and COS coordinates than those using the Gal.C.S and SLEVE1 coordinates. The results of the real-data test cases conducted over a one-month period suggest that the three modified 展开更多
文摘在分析2016年7月28日—8月2日新疆西部罕见大暴雨过程环流形势和影响系统的基础上,利用基于拉格朗日方法的轨迹模式HYSPLIT,应用GDAS资料,模拟计算了大暴雨期间不同区域不同高度的水汽输送轨迹、主要通道及不同源地的水汽贡献。结果表明:(1)200 h Pa高空偏西急流、700 h Pa和850 h Pa低空偏东急流及辐合线和500 h Pa稳定"两脊一槽"环流是大暴雨产生的天气背景;(2)大暴雨过程中阿克苏地区北部、伊犁河谷地区和博州地区东部1500、3000和5000 m水汽输送轨迹、主要通道及不同源地的水汽贡献存在差异,其中,阿克苏地区北部1500、3000、5000 m水汽分别主要来自中亚地区、中亚地区、地中海北部,水汽贡献分别占该高度水汽的38%、46%、48%;伊犁河谷地区1500、3000、5000 m水汽分别主要来自哈萨克斯坦、哈萨克斯坦、黑海南部,水汽贡献分别占该高度水汽的100%、50%、68%;博州地区东部1500、3000、5000 m水汽分别主要来自西西伯利亚、中亚地区、东欧,水汽贡献分别占该高度水汽的58%、54%、82%。水汽在输送过程中高度多变,以偏东和偏南路径为主输送到大暴雨区上空;(3)欧洲大陆、西西伯利亚、中亚地区等陆地及黑海、里海等海洋是此次大暴雨水汽主要来源。南疆低层偏东风和辐合线在水汽的聚集及向上输送中发挥了重要作用,高空急流产生的次级环流的下沉气流在将高空水汽向下输送中扮演了重要角色。
文摘利用ECMWF集合预报对2016年6月11—12日发生在长三角地区的一次暴雨过程进行了分析,并对集合"好""坏"两类成员的预报结果进行了对比。分析表明:集合预报对本次暴雨过程具有比较好的预报能力,集合平均预报效果要优于确定性预报,其雨量预报的增大趋势对暴雨的预报具有一定的指示意义;高分位数集合成员对于暴雨预报有比较好的参考价值,尤其是在预报时效还较长的时候,如果连续多起报时次高分位数集合成员都预报出暴雨,以及低分位数集合成员的雨量预报呈现逐渐增大趋势,预示着暴雨的可能性在增大,有助于暴雨预报的决策;对天气系统和气象要素的预报差异是造成"好""坏"两类集合成员对本次暴雨过程模拟效果差异的主要原因,对500 h Pa高空槽、850 h Pa低涡及其切变线、西南气流和偏东气流的模拟是决定"好""坏"两类集合成员模拟效果的关键因素。
基金Supported by the National(Key)Basic Research and Development(973)Program of China(2013CB430106)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41375108)National Science and Technology Support Program of China(2012BAC22B01)
文摘With increasing resolution in numerical weather prediction （NWP） models, the model topography can be described with finer resolution and includes steeper slopes. Consequently, negative effects of the traditional terrain-following vertical coordinate on high-resolution numerical simulations become more distinct due to larger errors in the pressure gradient force （PGF） calculation and associated distortions of the gravity wave along the coordinate surface. A series of numerical experiments have been conducted in this study, including idealized test cases of gravity wave simulation over a complex mountain, error analysis of the PGF estimation over a real topography, and a suite of real-data test cases. The GRAPES-Meso model is utilized with four different coordinates, i.e., the traditional terrain-following vertical coordinate proposed by Gal-Chen and Somerville （hereinafter referred to as the Gal.C.S coordinate）, the one-scale smoothed level （SLEVE1）, the two-scale smoothed level （SLEVE2）, and the COSINE （COS） coordinates. The results of the gravity wave simulation indicate that the GRAPES-Meso model generally can reproduce the mountain-induced gravity waves, which are consistent with the analytic solution. However, the shapes, vertical structures, and intensities Of the waves are better simulated with the SLEVE2 coordinate than with the other three coordinates. The model with the COS coordinate also performs well, except at lower levels where it is not as effective as the SLEVE2 coordinate in suppressing the PGF errors. In contrast, the gravity waves simulated in both the Gal.C.S and SLEVE1 coordinates are relatively distorted. The estimated PGF errors in a rest atmosphere over the real complex topography are much smaller （even disappear at the middle and upper levels） in the GRAPES-Meso model using the SLEVE2 and COS coordinates than those using the Gal.C.S and SLEVE1 coordinates. The results of the real-data test cases conducted over a one-month period suggest that the three modified
