In the East China Sea(ECS),chub mackerel Scomber japonicus constitutes an important coastal-pelagic fishery resource that is mainly exploited by Chinese,Japanese,and Korean light-purse seine fisheries.Because the earl...In the East China Sea(ECS),chub mackerel Scomber japonicus constitutes an important coastal-pelagic fishery resource that is mainly exploited by Chinese,Japanese,and Korean light-purse seine fisheries.Because the early life history of chub mackerel plays a significant role in its recruitment,we developed an individual-based model to study the distribution,growth,and survival rate of chub mackerel larvae and juveniles in the ECS to improve our understanding of the chub mackerel population structure and recruitment.Our results show that as body length rapidly increases,the swimming capacity of chub mackerel larvae and juveniles improves quickly,and their spatial distribution depends more on their habitat conditions than the ocean currents.Correspondingly,the juveniles from the central and southern ECS spawning ground are scarcely recruited into the Japan/East Sea(JES)or the western Pacific Ocean,but a significant proportion of juveniles from the northern ECS spawning ground still enter the JES and there are exchanges between the stocks in the ECS and JES.Thus,it seems more reasonable to assess and manage the chub mackerels in the ECS and JES as a stock.The water temperature and ocean primary production in the ECS are two important factors influencing the chub mackerel habitat conditions and their spatial and temporal distribution are significantly different as the spawning time changes.Therefore,the spawning time and location play an important role in the growth and survival rate of the larvae and juveniles.Generally,when chub mackerel spawns at the southern ECS spawning ground in March,the larva and juvenile growth and survival rate is relatively high;as spawning time moves forward,higher growth and survival rates would be expected for the chub mackerel spawned coastward or northward.For specific spawning sites,early or delayed spawning will reduce the survival rate.展开更多
The neon flying squid(Ommastrephes bartramii)in the Northwest Pacific Ocean is one economically important cephalopod,largely exploited by squid jigging fleets from Chinese Mainland,Japan,and Chinese Taibei.In this stu...The neon flying squid(Ommastrephes bartramii)in the Northwest Pacific Ocean is one economically important cephalopod,largely exploited by squid jigging fleets from Chinese Mainland,Japan,and Chinese Taibei.In this study,a Bayesian Bio-economic model was developed using fishery data from Chinese Mainland,Japan,and Chinese Taibei,and relevant fishery economic data from Chinese Mainland.The stock assessment and risk analysis of alternative management strategies for O.bartramii were carried out.Three prior distributions(i.e.,uniform,normal and logarithmic normal)for model parameters were assumed in different scenarios.The results showed that the estimated model parameters and reference points such as maximum sustainable yield(MSY),maximum economic yield(MEY),bio-economic balance point(BE)and fishing mortality were similar in the scenarios of normal and logarithmic normal prior assumptions.However,the estimates were larger in the scenario of uniform prior assumption.The fishing mortalities and annual catches from 1996 to 2008 were lower than the reference points F_(0.1) and MSY in all the three scenarios,indicating that O.bartramii stock is at sustainable exploited level.The results of decision analysis indicated that under the same harvest rate,the catch and biomass in 2023 from the uniform assumption were the highest.However,the highest probability of the collapse was found for squid resources after 2023.Our findings suggested that the harvest rate of 0.4 appeared to be the best management regulation under the uniform assumption,and the MSY would be 200 thousand tons.In addition,the harvest rate of 0.5 would be the best management regulation under the other two assumptions,and the MSY would be 180 thousand tons,which balanced the desire for high yields and the healthy population.The results of this study could be used to provide management suggestions for neon flying squid in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.展开更多
The purpose of stock assessment is to support managers to provide intelligent decisions regarding removal from fish populations.Errors in assessment models may have devastating impacts on the population fitness and ne...The purpose of stock assessment is to support managers to provide intelligent decisions regarding removal from fish populations.Errors in assessment models may have devastating impacts on the population fitness and negative impacts on the economy of the resource users.Thus,accuracte estimations of population size,growth rates are critical for success.Evaluating and testing the behavior and performance of stock assessment models and assessing the consequences of model mis-specification and the impact of management strategies requires an operating model that accurately describe the dynamics of the target species,and can resolve spatial and seasonal changes.In addition,the most thorough evaluations of assessment models use an operating model that takes a different form than the assessment model.This paper presents an individual-based probabilistic model used to simulate the complex dynamics of populations and their associated fisheries.Various components of population dynamics are expressed as random Bernoulli trials in the model and detailed life and fishery histories of each individual are tracked over their life span.The simulation model is designed to be flexible so it can be used for different species and fisheries.It can simulate mixing among multiple stocks and link stock-recruit relationships to environmental factors.Furthermore,the model allows for flexibility in sub-models(e.g.,growth and recruitment)and model assumptions(e.g.,age-or size-dependent selectivity).This model enables the user to conduct various simulation studies,including testing the performance of assessment models under different assumptions,assessing the impacts of model mis-specification and evaluating management strategies.展开更多
Various population structures or spatial heterogeneities in population distribution have been an important source of model misspecification and have had an impact on estimation performance in fisheries stock assessmen...Various population structures or spatial heterogeneities in population distribution have been an important source of model misspecification and have had an impact on estimation performance in fisheries stock assessment.In this study,we simulated the Indian Ocean albacore spatial heterogeneity in age-structure using Stock Synthesis according to the stage-dependent migration rate and region-dependent fishing mortality rate and generated the stock assessment data.Based on these data,we investigated the performances of different spatial configurations,selectivity curves and selections of CPUE(catch per unit effort)indices of the assessment models which were used to account for spatial heterogeneity.The results showed:(1)although the spatially explicit configurations,which exactly matched the operating model,provided unbiased and accurate estimates of relative spawning biomass,relative fishing mortality rate and maximum sustainable yield in all simulation scenarios,their performance may be very poor if there were mismatches between them and the operating model due to gaps in knowledge and data;(2)for spatially explicit assessment configuration,the correct boundary was required,but for non-spatially explicit assessment configuration,it seemed more important for analysts to partition the area to properly reflect the transition in field data and to effectively account for the impacts of ignoring the spatial structure by using the additional spatially referenced parameters;(3)although the areas-as-fleets methods and flexible time-varying selectivity curves could be used as better alternative approaches to account for spatial structure,these configurations could not completely eliminate the impacts of model misspecification and the quality of estimates of different quantities from the same assessment model may be inconsistent or the performance of the same assessment configuration may fluctuate significantly between simulation scenarios;(4)although the worst estimates could generally be avoided by using multiple CPUE indic展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.32072981)。
文摘In the East China Sea(ECS),chub mackerel Scomber japonicus constitutes an important coastal-pelagic fishery resource that is mainly exploited by Chinese,Japanese,and Korean light-purse seine fisheries.Because the early life history of chub mackerel plays a significant role in its recruitment,we developed an individual-based model to study the distribution,growth,and survival rate of chub mackerel larvae and juveniles in the ECS to improve our understanding of the chub mackerel population structure and recruitment.Our results show that as body length rapidly increases,the swimming capacity of chub mackerel larvae and juveniles improves quickly,and their spatial distribution depends more on their habitat conditions than the ocean currents.Correspondingly,the juveniles from the central and southern ECS spawning ground are scarcely recruited into the Japan/East Sea(JES)or the western Pacific Ocean,but a significant proportion of juveniles from the northern ECS spawning ground still enter the JES and there are exchanges between the stocks in the ECS and JES.Thus,it seems more reasonable to assess and manage the chub mackerels in the ECS and JES as a stock.The water temperature and ocean primary production in the ECS are two important factors influencing the chub mackerel habitat conditions and their spatial and temporal distribution are significantly different as the spawning time changes.Therefore,the spawning time and location play an important role in the growth and survival rate of the larvae and juveniles.Generally,when chub mackerel spawns at the southern ECS spawning ground in March,the larva and juvenile growth and survival rate is relatively high;as spawning time moves forward,higher growth and survival rates would be expected for the chub mackerel spawned coastward or northward.For specific spawning sites,early or delayed spawning will reduce the survival rate.
基金This work was funded by Natural Science Foundation of China(41876141)the Funding Scheme for Training Young Teachers in Shanghai Colleges and the Shanghai Leading Academic Discipline Project(Fisheries Discipline).
文摘The neon flying squid(Ommastrephes bartramii)in the Northwest Pacific Ocean is one economically important cephalopod,largely exploited by squid jigging fleets from Chinese Mainland,Japan,and Chinese Taibei.In this study,a Bayesian Bio-economic model was developed using fishery data from Chinese Mainland,Japan,and Chinese Taibei,and relevant fishery economic data from Chinese Mainland.The stock assessment and risk analysis of alternative management strategies for O.bartramii were carried out.Three prior distributions(i.e.,uniform,normal and logarithmic normal)for model parameters were assumed in different scenarios.The results showed that the estimated model parameters and reference points such as maximum sustainable yield(MSY),maximum economic yield(MEY),bio-economic balance point(BE)and fishing mortality were similar in the scenarios of normal and logarithmic normal prior assumptions.However,the estimates were larger in the scenario of uniform prior assumption.The fishing mortalities and annual catches from 1996 to 2008 were lower than the reference points F_(0.1) and MSY in all the three scenarios,indicating that O.bartramii stock is at sustainable exploited level.The results of decision analysis indicated that under the same harvest rate,the catch and biomass in 2023 from the uniform assumption were the highest.However,the highest probability of the collapse was found for squid resources after 2023.Our findings suggested that the harvest rate of 0.4 appeared to be the best management regulation under the uniform assumption,and the MSY would be 200 thousand tons.In addition,the harvest rate of 0.5 would be the best management regulation under the other two assumptions,and the MSY would be 180 thousand tons,which balanced the desire for high yields and the healthy population.The results of this study could be used to provide management suggestions for neon flying squid in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.
基金Financial support for this project was provided by Shanghai Ocean University International Center for Marine Sciences.
文摘The purpose of stock assessment is to support managers to provide intelligent decisions regarding removal from fish populations.Errors in assessment models may have devastating impacts on the population fitness and negative impacts on the economy of the resource users.Thus,accuracte estimations of population size,growth rates are critical for success.Evaluating and testing the behavior and performance of stock assessment models and assessing the consequences of model mis-specification and the impact of management strategies requires an operating model that accurately describe the dynamics of the target species,and can resolve spatial and seasonal changes.In addition,the most thorough evaluations of assessment models use an operating model that takes a different form than the assessment model.This paper presents an individual-based probabilistic model used to simulate the complex dynamics of populations and their associated fisheries.Various components of population dynamics are expressed as random Bernoulli trials in the model and detailed life and fishery histories of each individual are tracked over their life span.The simulation model is designed to be flexible so it can be used for different species and fisheries.It can simulate mixing among multiple stocks and link stock-recruit relationships to environmental factors.Furthermore,the model allows for flexibility in sub-models(e.g.,growth and recruitment)and model assumptions(e.g.,age-or size-dependent selectivity).This model enables the user to conduct various simulation studies,including testing the performance of assessment models under different assumptions,assessing the impacts of model mis-specification and evaluating management strategies.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract No.2016YFC1400903the NSFC Zhejiang Joint Fund for the Integration of Industrialization and Informatization under contract No.U1609202
文摘Various population structures or spatial heterogeneities in population distribution have been an important source of model misspecification and have had an impact on estimation performance in fisheries stock assessment.In this study,we simulated the Indian Ocean albacore spatial heterogeneity in age-structure using Stock Synthesis according to the stage-dependent migration rate and region-dependent fishing mortality rate and generated the stock assessment data.Based on these data,we investigated the performances of different spatial configurations,selectivity curves and selections of CPUE(catch per unit effort)indices of the assessment models which were used to account for spatial heterogeneity.The results showed:(1)although the spatially explicit configurations,which exactly matched the operating model,provided unbiased and accurate estimates of relative spawning biomass,relative fishing mortality rate and maximum sustainable yield in all simulation scenarios,their performance may be very poor if there were mismatches between them and the operating model due to gaps in knowledge and data;(2)for spatially explicit assessment configuration,the correct boundary was required,but for non-spatially explicit assessment configuration,it seemed more important for analysts to partition the area to properly reflect the transition in field data and to effectively account for the impacts of ignoring the spatial structure by using the additional spatially referenced parameters;(3)although the areas-as-fleets methods and flexible time-varying selectivity curves could be used as better alternative approaches to account for spatial structure,these configurations could not completely eliminate the impacts of model misspecification and the quality of estimates of different quantities from the same assessment model may be inconsistent or the performance of the same assessment configuration may fluctuate significantly between simulation scenarios;(4)although the worst estimates could generally be avoided by using multiple CPUE indic
