We investigate the impact of the Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement （CCFTA） on Canadian exports to Chile, particularly the dynamic effects of the agree- ment on extensive and intensive margins of trade. Consistent wi...We investigate the impact of the Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement （CCFTA） on Canadian exports to Chile, particularly the dynamic effects of the agree- ment on extensive and intensive margins of trade. Consistent with the literature, we find that the extensive margin effects occurred later than the intensive margin effects and became more prominent in the long-term. Surprisingly, the intensive margin ef- fects died off in the long-term. A theoretical model is constructed to show that our results can arise in a standard setting of intra-industry trade.展开更多
Duration dependence affects the dynamics of multi sate time to event outcomes. In this paper we are testing if a contraction or an expansion state for the housing price is duration dependent on previous states lengths...Duration dependence affects the dynamics of multi sate time to event outcomes. In this paper we are testing if a contraction or an expansion state for the housing price is duration dependent on previous states lengths. This test has implications for explaining the dynamics and the predictability of the housing prices in subsequent spells of contraction/expansion. The test is carried on using a discrete time duration model. This research shows that federal fund rate has strong effect on duration of both expansion and contraction. The analysis is also showing that while for both contraction and expansion spells we observe duration dependence, the risk of exiting from either spell at the beginning of the spell is practically flat for the first five to six years in the expansion spells and between seven and eight years in the contraction spells. After these periods the risk of exiting an expansion spell is increasing but in a non-monotone way, while for the contraction spell the risk of exiting the state is increasing in a monotone way, making the contraction periods easier to predict than the expansion periods.展开更多
文摘We investigate the impact of the Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement （CCFTA） on Canadian exports to Chile, particularly the dynamic effects of the agree- ment on extensive and intensive margins of trade. Consistent with the literature, we find that the extensive margin effects occurred later than the intensive margin effects and became more prominent in the long-term. Surprisingly, the intensive margin ef- fects died off in the long-term. A theoretical model is constructed to show that our results can arise in a standard setting of intra-industry trade.
文摘Duration dependence affects the dynamics of multi sate time to event outcomes. In this paper we are testing if a contraction or an expansion state for the housing price is duration dependent on previous states lengths. This test has implications for explaining the dynamics and the predictability of the housing prices in subsequent spells of contraction/expansion. The test is carried on using a discrete time duration model. This research shows that federal fund rate has strong effect on duration of both expansion and contraction. The analysis is also showing that while for both contraction and expansion spells we observe duration dependence, the risk of exiting from either spell at the beginning of the spell is practically flat for the first five to six years in the expansion spells and between seven and eight years in the contraction spells. After these periods the risk of exiting an expansion spell is increasing but in a non-monotone way, while for the contraction spell the risk of exiting the state is increasing in a monotone way, making the contraction periods easier to predict than the expansion periods.
