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混合海气耦合模式的研制和El Nino的预告试验 被引量:4
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作者 倪允琪 S.E.Zebiak +2 位作者 M.A.Cane L.Marx j.shukla 《大气科学》 CSCD 北大核心 1998年第3期265-273,共9页
所使用的海气耦合模式是由COLAR15AGCM和简单的CZ海洋模式耦合而成。使用该混合海气耦合模式完成了15次ENSO试验预报,预告和观测的Nino3指数超前15个月的相关系数达06(在001有意义水平上该相关系... 所使用的海气耦合模式是由COLAR15AGCM和简单的CZ海洋模式耦合而成。使用该混合海气耦合模式完成了15次ENSO试验预报,预告和观测的Nino3指数超前15个月的相关系数达06(在001有意义水平上该相关系数在统计上是有意义的),超前一年半的Nino3指数的预告误差大约为06~09°C。预告结果表明混合海气耦合模式具有预测ENSO的能力达15个月。最后,还讨论了该模式的优点和进一步改进的途径。 展开更多
关键词 混合 海气耦合模式 预告试验 厄尔尼诺
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Modelling and Analysis of Bacteria Dependent Infectious Diseases with Variable Contact Rates 被引量:1
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作者 j.B.shukla Shikha Singh +1 位作者 jitendra Singh Sunil Kumar Sharma 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2021年第8期1859-1875,共17页
In this research,we proposed a non-linear SIS model to study the effect of variable interaction rates and non-emigrating population of the human habitat on the spread of bacteria-infected diseases.It assumed that the ... In this research,we proposed a non-linear SIS model to study the effect of variable interaction rates and non-emigrating population of the human habitat on the spread of bacteria-infected diseases.It assumed that the growth of bacteria is logistic with an intrinsic growth rate is a linear function of infectives.In this model,we assume that contact rates between susceptibles and infectives as well as between susceptibles and bacteria depend on the density of the non-emigrating population and the total population of the habitat.The stability theory has been analyzed to analyzed to study the crucial role played by bacteria in the increased spread of an infectious disease.It is shown that as the density of non-emigrating population increases,the spread of an infectious disease increases.It is shown further that as the emigration increases,the spread of the disease decreases in both the cases of contact mentioned above rates,but this spread increases as these contact rates increase.It suggested that the control of bacteria in the human habitat is very useful to decrease the spread of an infectious disease.These results are confirmed by numerical simulation. 展开更多
关键词 Mathematical modelling density dependent contact rates stability analysis
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A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR THE DEPLETION OF FORESTRY RESOURCES DUE TO POPULATION AND POPULATION PRESSURE AUGMENTED INDUSTRIALIZATION
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作者 A.K.MISRA KUSUM LATA j.B.shukla 《International Journal of Modeling, Simulation, and Scientific Computing》 EI 2014年第1期186-201,共16页
In this paper,a nonlinear mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study the depletion of forestry resources caused simultaneously by population and population pressure augmented industrialization.The control of... In this paper,a nonlinear mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study the depletion of forestry resources caused simultaneously by population and population pressure augmented industrialization.The control of population pressure,using economic efforts is also considered in the modeling process.It is assumed that cumulative biomass density of forestry resources and the density of population follow logistic models.It is further assumed that the density of population and the level of industrialization increase as the cumulative biomass density of forestry resources increases.The cumulative density of economic efforts,which are applied to control the population pressure,is considered to be proportional to the population pressure.The model analysis shows that as the population pressure increases,the level of industrialization increases leading to decrease in the cumulative biomass density of forestry resources.It is found that if population pressure is controlled by using some economic efforts,the decrease in cumulative biomass density of forestry resources can be made much less than the case when no control is applied.It is also noted that if the population pressure augmented industrialization increases without control,the forestry resources may become extinct. 展开更多
关键词 Mathematical model forestry resources population pressure INDUSTRIALIZATION economic efforts STABILITY
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