Cropland displacement, as an important characteristic of cropland change, places more emphasis on changes in spatial location than on quantity. The effects of cropland displacement on global and regional food producti...Cropland displacement, as an important characteristic of cropland change, places more emphasis on changes in spatial location than on quantity. The effects of cropland displacement on global and regional food production are of general concern in the context of urban expansion. Few studies have explored scale-effects, however, where cropland is displaced not only within, but also outside, the administrative boundary of a certain region. This study used a spatially explicit model(LANDSCAPE) to simulate the potential cropland displacement caused by urban land expansion from 2020 to 2040 at four scales of the Chinese administration system(national, provincial, municipal, and county levels). The corresponding changes in potential cereal production were then assessed by combining cereal productivity data. The results show that 4700 km^(2) of cropland will be occupied by urban expansion by 2040, and the same amount of cropland will be supplemented by forest, grassland, wetland, and unused land. The potential loss of cropland will result in the loss of 3.838×10^(6) tons of cereal production, and the additional cropland will bring 3.546×10^(6) tons, 3.831×10^(6) tons, 3.836×10^(6) tons, and 3.528×10^(6) tons of potential cereal production in SN(national scale), SP(provincial scale), SM(municipal scale), and SC(county scale), respectively. Both SN and SC are observed to make a huge difference in cereal productivity between the lost and the supplemented cropland. We suggest that China should focus on the spatial allocation of cropland during large-scale displacement, especially at the national level.展开更多
在生态文明背景下,探索兼顾耕地资源保护与生态系统维护的永久基本农田划定方法对构建国土空间开发新格局具有重要意义。该研究通过最小累积阻力(minimum cumulative resistance,MCR)模型与电路理论等在识别生态源地、生态廊道和“踏脚...在生态文明背景下,探索兼顾耕地资源保护与生态系统维护的永久基本农田划定方法对构建国土空间开发新格局具有重要意义。该研究通过最小累积阻力(minimum cumulative resistance,MCR)模型与电路理论等在识别生态源地、生态廊道和“踏脚石”基础上,将土地评价与立地条件分析(land evaluation and site assessment,LESA)方法及未来土地利用模拟(future land use simulation model,FLUS)模型相结合构建了一套顾及生态系统连通性的永久基本农田划定方法,以期为十堰市永久基本农田划定提供一定理论参考。结果表明:1)十堰市生态源地共计26个,主要以林地与水域为主,分布在南部和中部山地丘陵区;生态廊道共计66条,集中分布在竹溪县、竹山县、房县等境内;“踏脚石”共计121个。2)基于LESA方法划定的永久基本农田虽然满足了目标需求量,但与重要生态系统连通性用地存在严重冲突,与生态源地、生态廊道、“踏脚石”冲突面积分别为1772.64、4274.19、391.86 hm^(2)。3)顾及生态系统连通性的永久基本农田划定方法,有效避开了划定的永久基本农田对生态源地、生态廊道与“踏脚石”等侵占,而且满足了未来城市用地增长需求,同时划定的永久基本农田质量高,集中连片性强,农田形状也较规则,便于机械化耕作,对保障中国粮食安全,推进农业供给侧结构性改革,实现乡村振兴具有重要作用。展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42101280Humanities and Social Science Fund of the Ministry of Education,No.20YJC630182,No.18YJA790018。
文摘Cropland displacement, as an important characteristic of cropland change, places more emphasis on changes in spatial location than on quantity. The effects of cropland displacement on global and regional food production are of general concern in the context of urban expansion. Few studies have explored scale-effects, however, where cropland is displaced not only within, but also outside, the administrative boundary of a certain region. This study used a spatially explicit model(LANDSCAPE) to simulate the potential cropland displacement caused by urban land expansion from 2020 to 2040 at four scales of the Chinese administration system(national, provincial, municipal, and county levels). The corresponding changes in potential cereal production were then assessed by combining cereal productivity data. The results show that 4700 km^(2) of cropland will be occupied by urban expansion by 2040, and the same amount of cropland will be supplemented by forest, grassland, wetland, and unused land. The potential loss of cropland will result in the loss of 3.838×10^(6) tons of cereal production, and the additional cropland will bring 3.546×10^(6) tons, 3.831×10^(6) tons, 3.836×10^(6) tons, and 3.528×10^(6) tons of potential cereal production in SN(national scale), SP(provincial scale), SM(municipal scale), and SC(county scale), respectively. Both SN and SC are observed to make a huge difference in cereal productivity between the lost and the supplemented cropland. We suggest that China should focus on the spatial allocation of cropland during large-scale displacement, especially at the national level.
文摘在生态文明背景下,探索兼顾耕地资源保护与生态系统维护的永久基本农田划定方法对构建国土空间开发新格局具有重要意义。该研究通过最小累积阻力(minimum cumulative resistance,MCR)模型与电路理论等在识别生态源地、生态廊道和“踏脚石”基础上,将土地评价与立地条件分析(land evaluation and site assessment,LESA)方法及未来土地利用模拟(future land use simulation model,FLUS)模型相结合构建了一套顾及生态系统连通性的永久基本农田划定方法,以期为十堰市永久基本农田划定提供一定理论参考。结果表明:1)十堰市生态源地共计26个,主要以林地与水域为主,分布在南部和中部山地丘陵区;生态廊道共计66条,集中分布在竹溪县、竹山县、房县等境内;“踏脚石”共计121个。2)基于LESA方法划定的永久基本农田虽然满足了目标需求量,但与重要生态系统连通性用地存在严重冲突,与生态源地、生态廊道、“踏脚石”冲突面积分别为1772.64、4274.19、391.86 hm^(2)。3)顾及生态系统连通性的永久基本农田划定方法,有效避开了划定的永久基本农田对生态源地、生态廊道与“踏脚石”等侵占,而且满足了未来城市用地增长需求,同时划定的永久基本农田质量高,集中连片性强,农田形状也较规则,便于机械化耕作,对保障中国粮食安全,推进农业供给侧结构性改革,实现乡村振兴具有重要作用。
