[Objective] This study aimed to explore the historical evolution rules of precipitation variation in Zhongwei City by analyzing the annual precipitation data during 1961 to 2010 from Zhongwei Municipal Meteorological ...[Objective] This study aimed to explore the historical evolution rules of precipitation variation in Zhongwei City by analyzing the annual precipitation data during 1961 to 2010 from Zhongwei Municipal Meteorological Bureau of Ningxia,to provide the basis for middle and long term precipitation trend forecast.[Method] Five-point moving average method,trend coefficient analysis method,Mann-Kendall trend test method and variance analysis method were used to analyze the annual precipitation data during 1961 to 2010 in Zhongwei City.[Result] Annual precipitation series in Zhongwei City of Ningxia during 1961 to 2010 showed an insignificantly decreasing trend;among the seasonal precipitation series,spring precipitation had shown a consistent variation with the annual precipitation,summer precipitation had shown a slightly decreasing trend before 1978 and a significantly decreasing trend after 1978,autumn precipitation showed a decreasing trend before 1978 and an insignificantly increasing trend after 1978,winter precipitation showed a significantly increasing trend before 1978 and an insignificantly increasing trend after 1978.Both the annual and seasonal precipitation series had significant periodic variation rules.[Conclusion] Results of this study was conducive to understand the overall trend of annual precipitation series variation in Zhongwei City of Ningxia and its seasonal distribution characteristics and variation rules and provided a reliable basis for the hydrological forecasting in this region and reference for the middle and long term estimation and forecast of the trend of precipitation variation.展开更多
基金Supported by Youth Fund Project of Ningxia Meteorological BureauProject of Ningxia Meteorological Bureau " Study on Desert Facilities Agro-meteorological Support Technology in Zhongwei City" Scientific and Technological Project of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Science and Technology Agency " Study on Evolution Rule,Prediction and Forecast of Diseases and Pests of Jujube and Its Comprehensive Prevention and Control Technology" ~~
文摘[Objective] This study aimed to explore the historical evolution rules of precipitation variation in Zhongwei City by analyzing the annual precipitation data during 1961 to 2010 from Zhongwei Municipal Meteorological Bureau of Ningxia,to provide the basis for middle and long term precipitation trend forecast.[Method] Five-point moving average method,trend coefficient analysis method,Mann-Kendall trend test method and variance analysis method were used to analyze the annual precipitation data during 1961 to 2010 in Zhongwei City.[Result] Annual precipitation series in Zhongwei City of Ningxia during 1961 to 2010 showed an insignificantly decreasing trend;among the seasonal precipitation series,spring precipitation had shown a consistent variation with the annual precipitation,summer precipitation had shown a slightly decreasing trend before 1978 and a significantly decreasing trend after 1978,autumn precipitation showed a decreasing trend before 1978 and an insignificantly increasing trend after 1978,winter precipitation showed a significantly increasing trend before 1978 and an insignificantly increasing trend after 1978.Both the annual and seasonal precipitation series had significant periodic variation rules.[Conclusion] Results of this study was conducive to understand the overall trend of annual precipitation series variation in Zhongwei City of Ningxia and its seasonal distribution characteristics and variation rules and provided a reliable basis for the hydrological forecasting in this region and reference for the middle and long term estimation and forecast of the trend of precipitation variation.