综合自上而下的系统动力学模型和自下而上的元胞自动机模型,从宏观用地总量需求和微观土地供给相平衡的角度,充分利用系统动力学模型在情景模拟和宏观驱动因素反映上的优势与元胞自动机模型在微观土地利用空间格局反映上的优势,发展了...综合自上而下的系统动力学模型和自下而上的元胞自动机模型,从宏观用地总量需求和微观土地供给相平衡的角度,充分利用系统动力学模型在情景模拟和宏观驱动因素反映上的优势与元胞自动机模型在微观土地利用空间格局反映上的优势,发展了土地利用情景变化动力学LUSD(Land Use Scenarios Dynamics model)模型.利用该模型对中国北方13省未来20年土地利用变化的情景模拟结果表明,由于LUSD模型充分利用了系统动力学模型和元胞自动机模型的特点和优势,同时考虑了土地利用系统宏观驱动因素复杂性和微观格局演化复杂性的特征,因而提高了当前土地利用情景模型的可靠性,这将在一定程度上为理解土地利用系统的复杂驱动行为,评估脆弱生态区土地系统变化的潜在生态效应提供帮助.同时,LUSD模型的情景模拟结果也表明,农牧交错带地区是中国北方未来20年土地利用变化比较明显的地区,而耕地和城镇用地则是该区域内变化最为显著的两种用地类型.展开更多
Land use reflects human activities on land.Urban land use is the highest level human alteration on Earth,and it is rapidly changing due to population increase and urbanization.Urban areas have widespread effects on lo...Land use reflects human activities on land.Urban land use is the highest level human alteration on Earth,and it is rapidly changing due to population increase and urbanization.Urban areas have widespread effects on local hydrology,climate,biodiversity,and food production[1,2].However,maps,that contain knowledge on the distribution,pattern and composition of various land use types in urban areas,are limited to city level.The mapping standard on data sources,methods,land use classification schemes varies from city to city,due to differences in financial input and skills of mapping personnel.To address various national and global environmental challenges caused by urbanization,it is important to have urban land uses at the national and global scales that are derived from the same or consistent data sources with the same or compatible classification systems and mapping methods.This is because,only with urban land use maps produced with similar criteria,consistent environmental policies can be made,and action efforts can be compared and assessed for large scale environmental administration.However,despite of the fact that a number of urban-extent maps exist at global scales[3,4],more detailed urban land use maps do not exist at the same scale.Even at big country or regional levels such as for the United States,China and European Union,consistent land use mapping efforts are rare[5,6](e.g.,https://sdi4apps.eu/open_land_use/).展开更多
文摘综合自上而下的系统动力学模型和自下而上的元胞自动机模型,从宏观用地总量需求和微观土地供给相平衡的角度,充分利用系统动力学模型在情景模拟和宏观驱动因素反映上的优势与元胞自动机模型在微观土地利用空间格局反映上的优势,发展了土地利用情景变化动力学LUSD(Land Use Scenarios Dynamics model)模型.利用该模型对中国北方13省未来20年土地利用变化的情景模拟结果表明,由于LUSD模型充分利用了系统动力学模型和元胞自动机模型的特点和优势,同时考虑了土地利用系统宏观驱动因素复杂性和微观格局演化复杂性的特征,因而提高了当前土地利用情景模型的可靠性,这将在一定程度上为理解土地利用系统的复杂驱动行为,评估脆弱生态区土地系统变化的潜在生态效应提供帮助.同时,LUSD模型的情景模拟结果也表明,农牧交错带地区是中国北方未来20年土地利用变化比较明显的地区,而耕地和城镇用地则是该区域内变化最为显著的两种用地类型.
基金partially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFA0600104)supported by donations made by Delos Living LLC,and the Cyrus Tang Foundation+2 种基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41471419)Beijing Institute of Urban Planningsupported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(CCNU19TD002).
文摘Land use reflects human activities on land.Urban land use is the highest level human alteration on Earth,and it is rapidly changing due to population increase and urbanization.Urban areas have widespread effects on local hydrology,climate,biodiversity,and food production[1,2].However,maps,that contain knowledge on the distribution,pattern and composition of various land use types in urban areas,are limited to city level.The mapping standard on data sources,methods,land use classification schemes varies from city to city,due to differences in financial input and skills of mapping personnel.To address various national and global environmental challenges caused by urbanization,it is important to have urban land uses at the national and global scales that are derived from the same or consistent data sources with the same or compatible classification systems and mapping methods.This is because,only with urban land use maps produced with similar criteria,consistent environmental policies can be made,and action efforts can be compared and assessed for large scale environmental administration.However,despite of the fact that a number of urban-extent maps exist at global scales[3,4],more detailed urban land use maps do not exist at the same scale.Even at big country or regional levels such as for the United States,China and European Union,consistent land use mapping efforts are rare[5,6](e.g.,https://sdi4apps.eu/open_land_use/).
