利用中尺度气象模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)、无结构网格近岸海洋模式FVCOM(Finite-Volume Coastal and Ocean Model)和基于蒙特卡洛随机统计理论的海上搜救目标漂移轨迹模式Leeway,建立了长江口及邻近海域海上搜...利用中尺度气象模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)、无结构网格近岸海洋模式FVCOM(Finite-Volume Coastal and Ocean Model)和基于蒙特卡洛随机统计理论的海上搜救目标漂移轨迹模式Leeway,建立了长江口及邻近海域海上搜救物漂移轨迹预测模型系统。漂移轨迹预测以风和表层海流预报为基础,考虑了包括落水位置和时间、风致漂移方向、搜救目标物状态的不确定性以及风场预报误差带来的漂移路径预测误差,经统计获得搜救目标物可能漂移集合范围。对近年来发生在长江口邻近海域的海难事故后报模拟验证结果证明了Leeway模式在长江口邻近海域的适用性,同时表明所建立的搜救模型系统具有较高的精度,操作方便、时效性高,在搜救业务化预报工作中具有广阔的应用前景。展开更多
In order to study whether the random events set can be used in Rudongbank of Nantong or not, we use ADCIRC model to stimulate the storm surge affectingRudong bank based on random events set. Then we use p-III curve to...In order to study whether the random events set can be used in Rudongbank of Nantong or not, we use ADCIRC model to stimulate the storm surge affectingRudong bank based on random events set. Then we use p-III curve to fit peak-value ofsurge of all the years to get the surge of typical return periods. The result shows that theresults of fitting by ADCIRC and by historical data coincide well in lower return periods,but to higher return periods, the results of fitting by ADCIRC are significantly higher thanthat of fitting by historical data. Due to the short time, it’s not enough for the extremestorm surge events to occur, the results of higher return periods are not reliable, so wecan’t rule out the reasonability of results based on random events set. The results offitting based on random events set are accurate in lower return periods and we can alsofully estimate the surge of higher return periods based on random events set. In thesituation of lacking historical data of hundreds of years, random events set can beaccepted as a tool to compute the return period of storm surge. Consideration of globalwarming, the possibility of super typhoons’ appearance will rise, which will result inhigher surge of return periods. In order to prevent the disaster of storm surge, thegovernment needs to deepen and reinforce the coastal engineering like seawalls and embankments.展开更多
文摘利用中尺度气象模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)、无结构网格近岸海洋模式FVCOM(Finite-Volume Coastal and Ocean Model)和基于蒙特卡洛随机统计理论的海上搜救目标漂移轨迹模式Leeway,建立了长江口及邻近海域海上搜救物漂移轨迹预测模型系统。漂移轨迹预测以风和表层海流预报为基础,考虑了包括落水位置和时间、风致漂移方向、搜救目标物状态的不确定性以及风场预报误差带来的漂移路径预测误差,经统计获得搜救目标物可能漂移集合范围。对近年来发生在长江口邻近海域的海难事故后报模拟验证结果证明了Leeway模式在长江口邻近海域的适用性,同时表明所建立的搜救模型系统具有较高的精度,操作方便、时效性高,在搜救业务化预报工作中具有广阔的应用前景。
文摘In order to study whether the random events set can be used in Rudongbank of Nantong or not, we use ADCIRC model to stimulate the storm surge affectingRudong bank based on random events set. Then we use p-III curve to fit peak-value ofsurge of all the years to get the surge of typical return periods. The result shows that theresults of fitting by ADCIRC and by historical data coincide well in lower return periods,but to higher return periods, the results of fitting by ADCIRC are significantly higher thanthat of fitting by historical data. Due to the short time, it’s not enough for the extremestorm surge events to occur, the results of higher return periods are not reliable, so wecan’t rule out the reasonability of results based on random events set. The results offitting based on random events set are accurate in lower return periods and we can alsofully estimate the surge of higher return periods based on random events set. In thesituation of lacking historical data of hundreds of years, random events set can beaccepted as a tool to compute the return period of storm surge. Consideration of globalwarming, the possibility of super typhoons’ appearance will rise, which will result inhigher surge of return periods. In order to prevent the disaster of storm surge, thegovernment needs to deepen and reinforce the coastal engineering like seawalls and embankments.
