Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)in 2001 reported that the Earth air temperature would rise by 1.4-5.8℃and 2.5℃on average by the year 2100.China re-gional climate model results also showed that the air...Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)in 2001 reported that the Earth air temperature would rise by 1.4-5.8℃and 2.5℃on average by the year 2100.China re-gional climate model results also showed that the air temperature on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)would increase by 2.2-2.6℃in the next 50 years.A numerical permafrost model was developed to predict the changes of permafrost distribution on the QTP over the next 50 and 100 years under the two climatic warming scenarios,i.e.0.02℃/a,the lower value of IPCC’s estima-tion,and 0.052℃/a,the higher value predicted by Qin et al.Simulation results show that(i)in the case of 0.02℃/a air-temperature rise,permafrost area on the QTP will shrink about 8.8%in the next 50 years,and high temperature permafrost with mean annual ground temperature(MAGT)higher than?0.11℃may turn into seasonal frozen soils.In the next 100 years,perma-frost with MAGT higher than?0.5℃will disappear and the permafrost area will shrink up to 13.4%.(ii)In the case of 0.052℃/a air-temperature rise,permafrost area on the QTP will reduce about 13.5%after 50 years.More remarkable degradation will take place after 100 years,and permafrost area will reduce about 46%.Permafrost with MAGT higher than?2℃will turn into seasonal frozen soils and even unfrozen soils.展开更多
土地利用/覆被变化(Land Use and Cover Change,LUCC)是全球环境变化的重要组成部分。数量-空间耦合模型因能有效模拟土地利用斑块数量及其在空间上的快速变化,成为近年来土地利用研究的主要手段。本研究首先对比斑块生成土地利用变化...土地利用/覆被变化(Land Use and Cover Change,LUCC)是全球环境变化的重要组成部分。数量-空间耦合模型因能有效模拟土地利用斑块数量及其在空间上的快速变化,成为近年来土地利用研究的主要手段。本研究首先对比斑块生成土地利用变化模拟模型(Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation Model,PLUS)、未来土地利用模型(Future Land Use Simulation Model,FLUS)和小尺度土地利用变化及其空间效益模型(Conversion of Land Use and Its Effects at Small Regional Extent,CLUE-S)模拟2015年黑河流域中游甘临高地区(张掖市甘州区、临泽县和高台县)土地利用结构,筛选出最适合研究区的空间模拟模型;然后将其与系统动力学模型(System Dynamics,SD)进行耦合,形成数量-空间耦合模型;最后利用耦合模型预测2030年研究区在经济发展(Economic Development,ED)、生态保护(Ecological Protection,EP)和协调发展(Harmonious Development,HD)情景下的土地利用结构,并进行对比评价。研究结果表明:(1)在同一像元尺度下,PLUS模型的质量系数(Figure of Merit,FoM)高于FLUS和CLUE-S模型,且3个模型的数量Kappa系数(K_(no))和位置Kappa系数(Klocation)从高至低为:PLUS、CLUE-S和FLUS模型,说明PLUS模型在本研究区的空间拟合效果最优;(2)PLUS-SD耦合模型预测的不同情景表明,ED情景中建设用地和耕地迅速扩张但森林覆盖率较低,EP情景中的森林覆盖率明显提高,但经济发展水平偏低,HD情景中城市化水平提高的同时生态环境呈良性发展。本研究验证了PLUS-SD耦合模型的显著优势,凸显了PLUS模型有效的土地利用空间模拟能力与SD模型强大的数据处理功能。该结果可为土地规划政策的制定提供参考。展开更多
基金the Knowledge Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)(Grant No.KZCX1-SW-04)the Knowledge Innovation Project of CAREERI,CAS(Grant No.CACX200009)the Project of Ministry of Science and Technology of China(Grant No.G1998040812).
文摘Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)in 2001 reported that the Earth air temperature would rise by 1.4-5.8℃and 2.5℃on average by the year 2100.China re-gional climate model results also showed that the air temperature on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)would increase by 2.2-2.6℃in the next 50 years.A numerical permafrost model was developed to predict the changes of permafrost distribution on the QTP over the next 50 and 100 years under the two climatic warming scenarios,i.e.0.02℃/a,the lower value of IPCC’s estima-tion,and 0.052℃/a,the higher value predicted by Qin et al.Simulation results show that(i)in the case of 0.02℃/a air-temperature rise,permafrost area on the QTP will shrink about 8.8%in the next 50 years,and high temperature permafrost with mean annual ground temperature(MAGT)higher than?0.11℃may turn into seasonal frozen soils.In the next 100 years,perma-frost with MAGT higher than?0.5℃will disappear and the permafrost area will shrink up to 13.4%.(ii)In the case of 0.052℃/a air-temperature rise,permafrost area on the QTP will reduce about 13.5%after 50 years.More remarkable degradation will take place after 100 years,and permafrost area will reduce about 46%.Permafrost with MAGT higher than?2℃will turn into seasonal frozen soils and even unfrozen soils.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.21276233)the Postdoctoral Science Preferential Funding of Zhejiang Province,China(No.BSH1301019)
文摘土地利用/覆被变化(Land Use and Cover Change,LUCC)是全球环境变化的重要组成部分。数量-空间耦合模型因能有效模拟土地利用斑块数量及其在空间上的快速变化,成为近年来土地利用研究的主要手段。本研究首先对比斑块生成土地利用变化模拟模型(Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation Model,PLUS)、未来土地利用模型(Future Land Use Simulation Model,FLUS)和小尺度土地利用变化及其空间效益模型(Conversion of Land Use and Its Effects at Small Regional Extent,CLUE-S)模拟2015年黑河流域中游甘临高地区(张掖市甘州区、临泽县和高台县)土地利用结构,筛选出最适合研究区的空间模拟模型;然后将其与系统动力学模型(System Dynamics,SD)进行耦合,形成数量-空间耦合模型;最后利用耦合模型预测2030年研究区在经济发展(Economic Development,ED)、生态保护(Ecological Protection,EP)和协调发展(Harmonious Development,HD)情景下的土地利用结构,并进行对比评价。研究结果表明:(1)在同一像元尺度下,PLUS模型的质量系数(Figure of Merit,FoM)高于FLUS和CLUE-S模型,且3个模型的数量Kappa系数(K_(no))和位置Kappa系数(Klocation)从高至低为:PLUS、CLUE-S和FLUS模型,说明PLUS模型在本研究区的空间拟合效果最优;(2)PLUS-SD耦合模型预测的不同情景表明,ED情景中建设用地和耕地迅速扩张但森林覆盖率较低,EP情景中的森林覆盖率明显提高,但经济发展水平偏低,HD情景中城市化水平提高的同时生态环境呈良性发展。本研究验证了PLUS-SD耦合模型的显著优势,凸显了PLUS模型有效的土地利用空间模拟能力与SD模型强大的数据处理功能。该结果可为土地规划政策的制定提供参考。
