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基于溃决机理的堰塞湖溃决快速风险评估方法研究

Research on rapid quantitative risk assessment for barrier lake based on dam breach mechanism
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摘要 堰塞湖发生后极易形成溃决灾害链,亟需构建基于有限数据包的溃决快速定量风险评估方法。通过快速获取堰塞湖影响区域的三维地理信息,构建溃决-致灾的快速定量评估模型。基于堰塞湖坝体颗粒级配组成,实现精细化、简单化的稳定性快速评价;基于冲蚀特性和崩塌过程溃决机理,实现溃口流量变化过程分析与洪水演进过程模拟(1 h内);基于极限学习机网络模型建立风险人口与生命损失的函数,实现了生命损失评估预警,明晰了溃决-致灾的灾害链效应。将其应用于唐家山堰塞湖实例发现:研究方法能够较好地预警溃决灾害链;开挖引流槽可降低堰塞湖的溃口峰值流量、最大流速、溃口宽度和溃决库容,但无法防止溃决发生;若不开挖引流槽,溃决库容将达到3.14×10^(8) m^(3),溃口峰值流量达到9343.35 m^(3)/s,溃口顶宽增大到151.6 m,开挖引流槽可使溃口峰值流量减少12.6%,溃决库容减少36.5%,降低了堰塞湖的溃决风险;当提前预警时间超过2 h后,及时疏散下游淹没范围内的居民可使生命损失率降低为0。研究方法可实现堰塞湖应急处置时的快速定量风险评估,并为其应急处置决策提供技术支撑。 After the occurrence of barrier lakes,a disaster chain involving a dam breach is easily established,and it is vital to develop a quick quantitative risk assessment approach based on limited data.This method creates a rapid quantitative evaluation model of a dam-breach disaster by rapidly getting the three-dimensional geographic information of the impacted area of the barrier lake.A refined and simplified stability quick evaluation has been achieved based on the particle size composition of the dam body of the barrier lake.The rapid analysis of the peak flow process and evolution process(within 1 hour)has been realized based on the breach mechanism,erosion characteristics and the collapse process.The function of risk population and life loss has been established based on the extreme learning machine network model,and the early warning of life loss distribution characteristics has been realized.The disaster chain effect of a dam-breach disaster has been clarified.Applying it to the example of Tangjiashan barrier lake,it is found that this method can better warn the breach disaster chain.The excavation of a drainage groove can reduce the peak flow,the maximum flow velocity,breach width,and breach storage capacity of the barrier lake,but cannot prevent the breach.If the drainage groove is not excavated,the breach storage capacity will reach 3.14×10^(8) m^(3),the breach peak flow will reach 9343.35 m^(3)/s,and the breach top width will increase to 151.6 m.The excavation of the drainage groove can reduce the breach peak flow by 12.6%,the breach storage capacity by 36.5%,and the breach risk of the barrier lake.When the early warning time exceeds 2 hours,the life loss rate can be reduced to zero by evacuating the residents in the downstream submerged area.This method can realize rapid quantitative risk assessment in emergency disposal of barrier lakes and provide technical support for emergency disposal decisions.
作者 王琳 苑鹏飞 钟启明 胡亮 单熠博 薛一峰 WANG Lin;YUAN Pengfei;ZHONG Qiming;HU Liang;SHAN Yibo;XUE Yifeng(State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China;Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Key Laboratory of Earth-Rock Dam Failure Mechanism and Safety Control Techniques,Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029,China;Shaanxi Province Institute of Water Resources and Electric Power Investigation and Design,Xi’an 710001,China)
出处 《自然灾害学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第1期51-62,共12页 Journal of Natural Disasters
基金 国家自然科学基金项目(52279111,51909214,51779153)。
关键词 堰塞湖 稳定性 溃决过程 生命损失 风险评估 唐家山 barrier lake stability breach process life loss risk assessment Tangjiashan
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