摘要
目的 分析2015—2021年甘肃省永昌县结核病的流行特征,并利用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测其短期发病趋势,为结核病的重点人群预防和控制措施的制订提供一定的理论支撑。方法 从中国疾病预防控制信息系统子系统传染病监测收集2015—2021年甘肃省永昌县居民中结核病发病数据,采用描述流行病学方法分析结核病发病现状与流行特征,采用R 4.1.0软件建立结核病年发病人数的模型并预测其短期发病趋势。结果 2015—2021年永昌县结核病报告发病数为604例,结核病发病总体呈缓慢上升趋势(趋势χ^(2)=7.690,P<0.05),年平均发病率为47.09/10万;发病呈明显的季节性分布,发病数从3月开始逐渐上升,6月达到高峰后,之后逐月下降,在10月至次年1月又出现小幅增长;不同地区结核病构成差异无统计学意义(χ^(2)=51.695,P>0.05),六坝镇报告发病最多、占18.38%;不同性别结核病构成差异无统计学意义(χ^(2)=6.579,P>0.05),男女性别比2.07∶1;以61~75岁发病为主、占52.81%,不同年龄组结核病构成差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=45.999,P<0.05);以农民发病为主、占88.25%,不同职业人群结核病构成差异无统计学意义(χ^(2)=45.113,P>0.05)。灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测显示,2015—2021年结核病拟合发病数与实际发病数基本吻合,C=0.346,P=0.992,模型预测精度高,预测2022年和2023年结核病发病数为24例和17例。结论 2015—2021年永昌县结核病发病总体呈缓慢上升趋势,六坝镇为重点排查乡(镇);疾控部门应注意“三早”预防与基础健康教育普及,加强对高发月份重点监控。灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测该县结核病发病效果较好,且显示2022—2023年结核病发病数将持续下降。
Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of tuberculosis in Yongchang county,Gansu province from 2015 to 2021,and predict the trend of short-term incidence by the grey prediction model GM(1,1),so as to provide some theoretical support for formulating prevention and control measures in key populations with high risk of tuberculosis.Methods The data of tuberculosis incidence of the residents living in Yongchang county,Gansu province from 2015 to 2021 were collected from the subsystem of infectious disease monitoring in Chinese disease prevention and control information system,and the current situation and epidemic characteristics of tuberculosis were analyzed with descriptive epidemiological methods.The model of annual incident number of the cases with tuberculosis was established by the software of R 4.1.0 for predicting the trend of short-term incidence.Results Totaly 604 cases with tuberculosis were reported in Yongchang county from 2015 to 2021,with average annual incidence rate of 47009/100000,and the overall incidence of tuberculosis showed slowly increasing trend(trend χ^(2)=7.690,P<0.05).The epidemic showed obviously seasonal distribution,and the incident number of the cases gradually increased from March and peaked in June,then decreased month by month.The incident number of cases slightly increased again from October to January of next year.There was no statistical difference among the proportions of tuberculosis in different regions(χ^(2)=51.695,P>0.05).The incident number of the cases was mainly reported in Liuba town,accounting for 18.38%.There was no statistical difference between the proportions of TB cases of genders(χ^(2)=6.579,P>0.05),and the ratio of the male to the female was 2.07:1.Mainly cases were 61-75 years old,accounting for 52.81%,with statistical difference in the proportions of the cases in different ages(χ^(2)=45.999,P<0.05),Farmer cases were dominant and accounted for 88.25%,with statistical difference among the occupations(χ^(2)=45.113,P>0.05),The grey prediction model
作者
张明玉
周钰博
吴建军
李三三
王引弟
吕珍
Bilembi M OLIVIER
ZHANG Ming-yu;ZHOU Yu-bo;WU Jian-jun;LI San-san;WANG Ying-di;LV Zhen;Bilembi M OLIVIER(School of Public Health,Gansu University of Chinese medicine,Lanzhou,Gansu 730100,China)
出处
《疾病预防控制通报》
2023年第2期1-5,共5页
Bulletin of Disease Control & Prevention(China)
基金
甘肃省科技计划项目(21JR11RA139)。
关键词
结核病
流行特征
灰色预测模型
发病率
Tuberculosis
Epidemic characteristics
Grey prediction model
Incidence rate
