摘要
为识别并量化分析导致深井掘进工作面CO中毒事故的基本风险因素,构建了深井掘进工作面CO中毒事故贝叶斯网络模型并进行双向推理,结果表明:导致事故发生的先验概率为19.0%;在单因素作用下,导致事故发生的后验概率最大为27.9%;在多因素耦合作用下导致事故发生的后验概率最大为39.1%;未掌握工作面CO运移规律、施工环境温湿度过高、通风时间不合理、局部通风方案设计不合理、现场交叉施工干扰、通风设备维护管理差是影响深井掘进工作面CO中毒事故的6个基本风险因素;事故预防的重点是防止施工环境温湿度过高、通风时间不合理、局部通风方案设计不合理、现场交叉施工干扰、通风设备维护管理差这5个基本风险因素同时发生。研究成果可为我国深井施工中气体中毒事故的预防提供参考。
In order to identify and quantitatively analyze the basic risk factors causing carbon monoxide(CO)poisoning accidents on working face of deep mine excavation,a Bayesian network model for CO poisoning accident on working face of deep mine excavation was constructed and followed by performance of two-way reasoning.The results show that the prior probability of causing the accident was 19.0%.As the function of single factor,the maximum posterior probability of accident was 27.9%.The maximum posteriori probability of accident as the function of coupling factors was 39.1%.The six basic risk factors on CO poisoning accidents on working face of deep mine excavation consisted of failure to understand the law of CO migration on the working face,high temperature and humidity for the construction conditions,improper ventilation time,irrational local ventilation design,interfered by specialty-intersecting construction on site and poor maintenance and management of ventilation devices.The precautions should be concentrated on preventing such five basic risk factors as high temperature and humidity during the construction,improper ventilation time,irrational design of local ventilation,interfered by specialty-intersecting construction on site,and poor maintenance and management of ventilation device from occurrence at the same time.The results of study provide reference for the preventing gas poisoning accidents during the deep mine construction in China.
作者
李泓鲲
王孝东
刘杰
贺德幸
郭晨阳
蒋梦娇
Li Hongkun;Wang Xiaodong;Liu Jie;He Dexing;Guo Chenyang;Jiang Mengjiao(Faculty of Land and Resources Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming Yunnan 650093,China;School of Public Safety and Emergency Management,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming Yunnan 650093,China)
出处
《化工矿物与加工》
CAS
2023年第3期69-75,81,共8页
Industrial Minerals & Processing
基金
云南省重点研发计划(202003AC100002)
昆明理工大学引进人才科研启动基金(KKSY201721032)。
关键词
深井掘进工作面
贝叶斯网络
气体中毒事故
一氧化碳
后验概率
先验概率
耦合作用
事故预防
working face of deep mine excavation
Bayesian network
gas poisoning accident
carbon monoxide
poste-rior probability
priori probability
coupling effect
accident prevention
