摘要
为预防暴雨干扰下地铁安全事故,提出一种基于模糊认知图(FCM)的根本原因分析方法,评估地铁系统脆弱性;利用文本挖掘和专家访谈,构建由人的行为、设备设施、安全管理、应急救援、环境及脆弱性6个概念组成的因果模型,在FCM框架内模拟地铁系统脆弱性。结果表明:5种因素均与地铁系统脆弱性存在强相关性,其相关性大小为:安全管理>人的行为>应急救援>设备设施>环境;设备设施是疑似影响地铁系统脆弱性最根本的原因,此外,应注意监测应急救援储备情况及地铁运行环境;地铁系统脆弱性对于安全管理、人员行为的变动最为敏感。该方法可运用于地铁安全事故的预防,从而提高地铁系统安全管理水平。
In order to prevent subway safety accidents under storm disturbances,an FCM-based root cause analysis method was proposed to assess subway system vulnerability.A causal model consisting of six concepts of human behavior,equipment and facilities,safety management,emergency rescue,environment and vulnerability was constructed to simulate subway system vulnerability within the FCM framework using text mining and expert interviews.The results show that all five factors are strongly correlated with subway system vulnerability,and their correlation magnitudes are safety management>human behavior>emergency rescue>equipment and facilities>environment;equipment and facilities are the most suspicious causes of subway system vulnerability,in addition,attention should be paid to monitoring the emergency rescue reserve and subway operation environment;subway system vulnerability is most sensitive to changes in safety management and personnel behavior.This method can be applied to the prevention of subway safety accidents,so as to improve the safety management of the subway system.
作者
赵露薇
王青娥
ZHAO Luwei;WANG Qing'e(School of Civil Engineering,Central South University,Changsha Hunan 410075,China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第10期186-192,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
中南大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(1053320191580)。
关键词
模糊认知图(FCM)
暴雨干扰
地铁系统
脆弱性
安全管理
fuzzy cognitive map(FCM)
rainstorm interference
metro system
vulnerability
safety management
