摘要
根据农产品供应链属性,风险沿链条在供应商、收购商、零售商等节点间传播,为探究其中风险扩散机理,借鉴传播动力学模型,引入预期惩罚力度和外界助力程度两个因子,构建了农产品供应链网络风险传染SIR(susceptible-infected-recovered)模型,并将该模型应用于湖北省某粮油公司。研究结果表明:企业预期惩罚力度作为风险阻碍因子有效抑制风险在供应链中蔓延,但该值增大也一定程度上延长了企业脱离风险的时间;来自网络联盟等组织的助力可以大大缩短系统到达平衡态的用时,降低风险传染规模,在提高感染企业恢复概率方面可发挥积极作用,这为农产品供应链网络风险防范与控制开拓了新思路。
According to the attribute of agricultural product supply chain,risk spreads among suppliers,purchasers,retailers and other nodes along the chain.In order to explore the risk diffusion mechanism,the communication dynamics model for reference is used.Two factors are introduced:expected punishment and external help.This paper constructs the SIR(susceptible-infected-recovered)model of network risk infection in agricultural product supply chain.This model is applied to a grain and oil company in Hubei Province.The results show that the expected punishment of enterprises,as an obstacle factor of risk,can effectively inhibit the spread of risk in the supply chain,but the increase of this value also prolongs the time for enterprises to get rid of risk to a certain extent;the help from organizations such as network alliance can greatly shorten the time for the system to reach equilibrium,reduce the scale of risk infection,and play a positive role in improving the recovery probability of infected enterprises,which opens up new ideas for the prevention and control of network risk in agricultural product supply chain.
作者
戴剑勇
范梦鸽
Dai Jianyong;Fan Mengge(School of Economics,Management and Law,University of South China,Hengyang,Hunan 421001,China)
出处
《绿色科技》
2022年第9期220-225,共6页
Journal of Green Science and Technology
基金
湖南省教育厅重点资助科研项目(编号:18A235)。
关键词
农产品供应链
风险传染
SIR模型
基本再生数
仿真分析
agricultural supply chain
risk propagation
SIR model
basic regeneration number
simulation analysis
