摘要
本文首先构建一个包含人口年龄结构的内生增长模型,得到均衡状态下少儿人口和老年人口对经济增长影响的理论框架,数值模拟结果表明少儿比率与经济增长之间呈正U型关系、老年比率与经济增长之间呈倒U型关系。然后对1989-2017年中国31个省、自治区、直辖市的面板数据进行实证分析,单位根检验发现少儿比率、老年比率与经济增长之间不存在伪回归,考虑可能存在空间溢出效应,进行空间相关性检验,发现少儿比率、老年比率和经济增长均存在正向空间相关性,说明可以采用空间计量回归模型对面板数据进行估计,为了选择合适的模型,分别进行LM检验、HAUSMAN检验、WALD检验和LR检验,得出空间杜宾随机效应模型最合适,研究发现本地区少儿比率对本地区经济增长的影响为正U型,本地区老年比率对本地区经济增长的影响为倒U型,同时本地区少儿比率和老年比率也对相邻地区经济增长产生间接影响。
Firstly, this paper constructs an endogenous growth model including population age structure, and the theoretical framework of the influence of young population and old population on economic growth under equilibrium state is obtained. Numerical simulation shows that there are positive U-shaped relationship between the ratio of children and economic growth, and inverted U-shaped relationship between the ratio of the elderly and economic growth.Then, the paper empirically analyses the panel data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China from 1989 to 2017. Through the unit root test, it is found that there are no spurious regressions between the ratio of young population, the old population and economic growth.Considering possible spatial spillover effects, spatial correlation test is carried out, and it is found that there are positive spatial correlations in the ratio of children, the elderly and economic growth, indicating that the spatial econometric regression model can be used to estimate the panel data. In order to select appropriate model, using LM test, HAUSMAN test, WALD test and LR test, it is concluded that using the spatial dubin random effects model is most appropriate, which shows that the ratio of children in its region has a positive U-shaped effect on the neighboring economic growth, and the ratio of the elderly in its region has an inverted U-shaped effect on the neighboring economic growth. Meanwhile, the ratio of children and the elderly in its region also have an indirect effect on the economic growth of neighboring regions.
作者
贺俊
胡玲玲
唐述毅
HE Jun;HU Ling-ling;TANG Shu-yi(School of Management,University of Science and Technology of China,230026)
出处
《上海经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第11期48-58,共11页
Shanghai Journal of Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“基于内生经济增长理论的中国式财政分权效应研究”(批准号:71573240)阶段性成果之一。
关键词
老龄化
少子化
经济增长
内生增长
空间计量回归
Population Aging
Fewer Children
Economic Growth
Endogenous Growth
Spatial Econometric Regression
