摘要
文章利用江西省89个国家级地面观测台站资料和NCEP 1°×1°分析资料对2001~2010年3类强对流天气(冰雹、雷雨大风、强降水)发生的时空分布特征和物理量特征进行了分析,采用logistical回归分析方法建立了冰雹、雷雨大风、强降水的强对流天气分类潜势概率预报方法;通过2011~2016年32站次冰雹个例,419站次雷雨大风和1 031站次强降水个例对3种潜势概率预报方法进行了效果检验;运用2017年和2018年两次冰雹天气过程对冰雹概率潜势预报方程进行了检验,并全部通过检验。
The spatial and temporal distribution and physical characteristics of three types of severe convective weather(hail,thunderstorm,heavy precipitation)from 2001 to 2010 were analyzed by using 89 national surface observation data and NCEP 1°×1°analysis data in Jiangxi province.The classification potential of hail,thunderstorm gale and heavy precipitation is established by logistic regression analysis.The effects of three potential probability prediction methods were tested through 32 hail cases,419 thunderstorm gales and 1031 heavy precipitation cases from 2011 to 2016.Two hail weather processes in 2017 and 2018 were used to test the prediction equation of hail probability potential,and all of them passed the test.
作者
肖云
熊志文
李欢欢
马中元
Xiao Yun;Xiong Zhiwen;Li Huanhuan;Ma Zhongyuan(Jiangxi Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Nanchang 330046;Xinyu Meteorological Bureau,Xinyu 330096)
出处
《气象水文海洋仪器》
2020年第3期6-11,共6页
Meteorological,Hydrological and Marine Instruments
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“江南地区暖区暴雨对流触发机制及组织结构研究”(41975001)
中国气象科学研究院开放课题(2012LASWB01)
南京雷达气象与强天气开放基金项目(BJG201205)等项目资助.
关键词
强对流
潜势
预报
回归
strong convection
potential
prediction
regression
