摘要
2020年3月,中国疫情的状况已经趋于稳定不再有明显新增,而作为晚于中国爆发疫情的美国,却未能遏制疫情的蔓延。文章首先基于ARIMA模型对中美两国累计确诊人数进行趋势分析,发现中美两国在类似时段内却出现不同的走向,将其归因为两国政府在疫情治理效果上存在差异。为了寻求合理的防控措施,文章利用模糊综合评价法对两国防控措施进一步评价,考虑政策力度、民众配合、医疗措施、基础设施四个因素,通过评判得分,发现美国的失误之处在于政府未能及时采取有效的措施应对,民众对疫情也并不重视。该结论可以为世界各国提供疫情防控的合理建议和政府职能的评价准则。
In March 2020,the epidemic situation in China had stabilized and there was no significant increase,while the United States,which broke out later than China,failed to stop the spread of the epidemic.First of all,this paper analyzes the trend of the cumulative number of cases in China and the United States based on the ARIMA model,and finds that there are different trends between the two countries in a similar period of time,which is attributed to the differences in the epidemic control effect between the two governments.In order to seek reasonable prevention and control measures,this paper uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to further evaluate the prevention and control measures of the two countries,taking into account four factors:policy strength,public cooperation,medical measures and infrastructure.It is found that the mistake of the United States lies in the failure of the government to take effective measures in time,and the public do not attach importance to the epidemic situation.This conclusion can provide reasonable suggestions for epidemic prevention and control and evaluation criteria of government functions for countries all over the world.
作者
王俊芳
雷亚洲
周玉浩
王超
WANG Jun-fang;LEI Ya-zhou;ZHOU Yu-hao;WANG Chao(School of Mathematics and Statistics,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China)
出处
《价值工程》
2020年第23期59-61,共3页
Value Engineering
基金
国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201910078013)
国家自然科学基金(71571119)
河南省人文社会科学研究项目(2019—ZDJH—116)。
