摘要
本文借鉴汪寿阳教授2009年提出的“四环”集装箱港口系统的研究框架,以“一环”中国珠三角集装箱港口系统预测研究为例,具体介绍了基于该理论框架进行预测和分析集装箱港口系统货运需求的实证过程。实证研究表明,基于“四环”研究框架,从经济贸易、地理等不同维度来分析“一环”珠三角港口群系统,归纳和总结珠三角集装箱港口系统的发展现象和演化规律,识别影响集装箱货运需求的关键定量指标,结合并匹配TEI@I方法论的研究思路、方法和技术,科学地刻画了珠三角集装箱港口系统发展的各因素间的相互作用机制,显著地提高了集装箱港口系统的分析与预测能力。理论和实证研究表明,所构建的“四环”集装箱港口系统的研究框架,提供了解决全球各大集装箱港口复杂系统工程问题的分析和研究范式。
This paper firstly introduces a“four rings”research framework of global container port system,which is proposed by Professor Shouyang Wang in 2009.In empirical studies,the Pearl River Delta ports,as the“one ring”port system in the“four rings”research framework of global container port system,is used as an illustration.Empirical studies show that the“four rings”research framework,based on the economic and trade,geographical multi-dimensional analysis,provides an effective analytical framework to understand and generalize the attributes,matching patterns and evolution paths of container port system of PRD region in China.Accordingly,the key quantitative indicators affecting its container cargo demand,could be effectively identified.By matching the key quantitative indicators with the specific methods and technologies of TEI@I methodology,an integrated forecasting model for specific container port system analysis is constructed.The theoretical and empirical studies indicate that the proposed“four rings”research framework of global con-tainer port system provides the research paradigm for the complex world’s major container ports system.
作者
许利枝
严旭阳
Xu Lizhi;Yan Xuyang(Tourism College,Beijing Union University,Beijing 100101)
出处
《管理评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第7期17-28,共12页
Management Review
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71390330,71390331,71840002)。
