摘要
在气候变化与人类活动的影响下,陆地水循环过程发生了明显改变,并导致了一系列资源环境问题。深入认识陆地水循环过程的变化机理,发展陆地水循环过程综合集成模拟技术,预估未来陆地水循环的变化趋势,是当前水循环研究面临的重要任务。主要关注人类活动影响下的大尺度(大河流域或大陆尺度)陆地表层系统水循环模拟,梳理了近年来陆地水循环过程综合集成与模拟相关的研究进展,指出当前大尺度陆地表层系统水循环模拟模型的主要问题是对自然过程与人类活动过程间相互作用描述不足,以及人类活动参数化方案的不完善。因此,完善人类活动参数化方案,构建陆地水循环过程的综合集成模型,是模拟研究的重要发展方向之一。同时,考虑多要素过程的综合集成模型有助于解释气候变化与人类用水活动影响水循环变化的关键机制,为探索变化环境下陆地水循环变化成因及其效应提供理论与实践基础,其结果将为区域水资源配置及应对全球变化的战略决策提供科学依据。
The terrestrial water cycle is influenced by a wide range of climatic variables and human disturbances. In the era of the Anthropocene,when humans drive the changes in atmospheric and hydrological processes in river basins,there is an urgent need to include human impacts in the study of the terrestrial water cycle. This paper focused on the large-scale hydrological modeling which takes account of human impacts,reviewed the research progress of the natural and human-induced changes in the terrestrial water cycle and the development of comprehensive terrestrial hydrological models in recent years,and proposed that an integrated water system model with human-related processes such as crop water demand model,engineering regulation and social water demand,be the key to large-scale water cycle simulations under changing environment. Based on the existing large-scale land surface hydrological model,there is a need to put forward the integration of the human-related processes. A comprehensive integrated water system model that considers multi-processes can help us to understand the key mechanisms of how climate change and human activity influence the regional water cycle. It also provides a theoretical and practical basis for investigating the causes and effects of changes in terrestrial water cycle under a changing environment,and thus offers scientific support for climate change adaptation in the water sector.
作者
汤秋鸿
刘星才
李哲
运晓博
张学君
于强
李俊
张永勇
崔惠娟
孙思奥
张弛
唐寅
冷国勇
Tang Qiuhong;Liu Xingcai;Li Zhe;Yun Xiaobo;Zhang Xuejun;Yu Qiang;Li Jun;Zhang Yongyong;Cui Huijuan;Sun Siao;Zhang Chi;Tang Yin;Leng Guoyong(Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS. Beijing 100101,China;Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;Environmental Change Institute,University of Oxford,Oxford OXI 3QY,UK)
出处
《地球科学进展》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第2期115-123,共9页
Advances in Earth Science
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目"陆地水循环过程的综合集成与模拟"(编号:41730645)
国家杰出青年科学基金项目"陆地水循环变化与全球变化的关系"(编号:41425002)资助~~
关键词
陆地水循环
气候变化
人类活动
综合集成模型
Terrestrial water cycle
Climate change
Human activities
Integrated water systems model
