摘要
为有效评估成败型弹药的可靠性,介绍成败型部件可靠性经典评估方法和Bayes评估方法。针对无验前信息的弹药成败型部件可靠性评估问题,提出采用3种常用共轭先验来求其可靠性下限,并通过数值仿真分析,得到常用共轭先验分布对可靠度置信下限的影响规律以及每种共轭先验分布的适用情况。结果表明:3种共轭先验分布评估得到的结果较为合适,可为提高弹药可靠性评估的准确性提供支持。
In order to effectively evaluate the reliability of ammunition, the classical method and Bayes method of reliability evaluation assessment of success or failure components are introduced. The 3 conjugate prior used for find the lower confidence limit of reliability is proposed for reliability evaluation of ammunition components with no-prior information. And the influence of commonly used conjugate prior distribution on the lower confidence limit of reliability and the application of each conjugate prior distribution are obtained by numerical simulation analysis. The results show that the 3 conjugate prior distributions is more appropriate and can provide support for improving the accuracy of the reliability evaluation ammunition.
作者
李翰朋
宣兆龙
朱宏
Li Hanpeng;Xuan Zhaolong;Zhu Hong(Department of Ammunition Engineering,Army Engineering University,Shijiazhuang 050003,China;Reliability Center,Xi＇an Modern Control Technology Research Institute,Xi＇an 710000,China)
出处
《兵工自动化》
2018年第9期70-73,79,共5页
Ordnance Industry Automation
关键词
弹药
成败型
验前信息
可靠性
评估
ammunition
success-or-failure pattern
priori information
reliability
evaluation
