摘要
利用1980~2012年的样本数据,使用自回归滞后模型研究了我国碳排放与经济增长、可再生能源消费、非再生能源消费、对外贸易各影响因素间的长期均衡和短期动态关系,并重点对比分析了可再生能源消费对EKC模型的影响。实证结果表明:各变量间存在长期均衡关系。不考虑可再生能源消费影响的情况下我国并不存在二氧化碳排放的EKC曲线,对外贸易和碳排放之间为正相关关系。而加入可再生能源消费之后则发现经济增长和碳排放支持倒U型的EKC曲线,且对外贸易和碳排放之间为负相关关系。此外,可再生能源消费在长期和短期中对碳排放有负向影响作用,其中长期系数比较明显,短期系数并不显著。
Using the autoregressive distributes lag bounds testing approach, this study analyzes the long-run and short-run relationships among per capita CO2 emissions, GDP, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and foreign trade for China covering the period 1980 - 2012, and explores the effect of renewable energy consumption. The results show that there is a long-run relationship among those variables. Besides, China does not have the EKC of carbon emissions without considering the influence of renewable energy consumption. Also, there is a positive correlation between foreign trade and carbon emissions. However, when the variable like renewable energy consumption is added in our model, it finds that the inverted U-shaped EKC hypothesis is supported graphically and analytically in the long-run. Lastly, note that renewable energy consumption has a significant negative impact on carbon emissions in the long-run and has a slightly negative impact on carbon emissions in the short-run.
出处
《软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第9期49-52,共4页
Soft Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71203219)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(16YJAZH015)
全国统计科研计划重点项目(2016LZ13)
