摘要
降水和气温是影响黄土高原地区生态建设的关键气象要素。以黄土高原73个气象站1961-2014年降水和气温实测资料为基础,采用Mann-Kendall法、Hurst指数和小波分析等方法,研究了降水和气温时间变化特征。结果表明:黄土高原地区年、春、夏及秋季平均降水量年际变化趋势均不显著(P>0.05),但冬季以1.41mm/10a的倾向率显著上升(P<0.01),且在1971年发生突变。年、春、秋、冬季平均气温均呈显著上升趋势,且突变时间发生于20世纪80年代中期和90年代中期。73站中,73.9%的站表现为朝着暖干化方向发展,19.2%的站呈现暖湿化态势,但冬季整个黄土高原暖湿化现象明显。降水量具有5a的第一主周期,气温存在13a的第一主周期。
Precipitation and temperature are the key meteorological elements that affect the vegetation restoration in the Loess Plateau. Characteristics of climate changes in the Loess Plateau was analyzed by linear regression method, Mann - Kendall test, Hurst exponent and wavelets analysis method based on daily precipitation and daily air temperature data observed at 73 meteorological stations across the Loess Plateau from 1961 to 2014. The result showed that mean precipitation covered the Loess Plateau had no significant temporal trends in annual, spring and summer, while precipitation in winter was in a significantly increasing trend with a rate of 1.41mm/ 10a, and emerged abrupt change in 1971. Annual mean temperature showed significantly increase trend with the increasing rate of 0.31~C/10a, and nearly about 85% of stations showed significantly increase trend. The increased rate of seasonal temperature is as follows ： winter 〉 spring 〉 autumn 〉 summer. Change points of an- nual and seasonal temperature mostly appeared during mid - 1980s and mid - 1990s. Hurst exponent revealed that climate change in the Loess Plateau was overall towards to warmer and dryer, but in some areas tended to be warmer and wetter. The annual mean precipitation fluctuated significantly with the periods of 14 years, but annual mean temperature fluctuated with periods of 13 years. Annual precipitation in the Loess Plateau was negatively correlated with NOI, and there were also some correlation between seasonal precipitation and atmospheric circulation index. Annual temperature showed no significant correlation with atmospherie eirculation index, while summer temperature was negatively eorrelated with PDO and winter temperature was positively correlated with WP.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第3期136-143,共8页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
中国科学院重点部署项目(KZZD-EW-04-03)
国家基金(41271295)
黄河中游及潘阳湖流域水沙变化比较研究(No.A289021104)资助
