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基于动态权重的城市群经济增长的关联性 被引量:6

The Economic Growth Linkages among Urban Agglomerations Based on Dynamic Weights
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摘要 通过分析城市群经济增长与空间溢出机理,指出邻近距离、市场潜能、产业结构和政策为主要影响因素,因此空间权重是内生的和动态的。其次,提出空间关联年度数最大化结合空间模型最优化是确定最优权重参数的有效方法。然后,依据Moran系数、空间滞后系数和β绝对收敛参数判断城市群经济增长空间关联属性,从而确定城市群经济发展阶段。最后,以环长株潭城市群例证该方法的可行性,并得出:1权重因子及权重参数选择对经济关联性影响很大;2在城市群范围内采用N阶空间邻近距离更合理,市场潜力是最强的溢出因子,产业结构相关多样性阻碍了空间负相关,但区域一体化政策促进经济溢出;3环长株潭城市群处于发展初期,空间负相关显著,中心城市集聚效应较强,存在明显的新古典收敛机制和制度收敛机制,但技术收敛机制很弱;4通过消除阻碍贸易和要素自由流动的行政壁垒和交通瓶颈能促进城市群经济共同发展。 Based on the analysis of the mechanism of economic growth and spatial spillover among urban agglomerations, we find that geographical proximity, market potential, industrial structure and policy are the main factors, so spatial weights are assumed to be endogenous and dynamic. Then, we use a new method for estimating weight parameters, which is to maximize the number of Spatial correlation of one year associated with the spatial model optimization method. Moreover, according to the Moran' s index, spatial lag coefficient and 13 absolute convergence parameters, we can estimate the spatial properties of economic growth of urban agglomerations, so their economic development stage can be inferred. Finally, an empirical analysis of Great Chang-Zhu-Tang city clusters shows the feasibility of the method and drags the following conclusion: (1)The choice of weighting factors and weight parameters have great influences on the spatial correlation; (2)N-order contiguity matrix is better to Measure the spatial correlation of city clusters, and market potential is the strongest spillover factor, but the related variety of industrial structure prevents negative spatial correlation, while regional integration policy booster economic spillovers; (3)Economy development of Great Chang-Zhu-Tang city clusters is at preliminary stage with significantly negative spatial correlation, and there are strong agglomeration economics in central city. There is new classical convergence mechanism with weak technical convergence mechanism, so the economic trend with diffusion, agglomeration and re-diffusion is observed; (4) the elimination of administrative barriers and transport bottlenecks which hinder the free flow of trade and factors of production can booster common economic development of city clusters.
出处 《经济地理》 CSSCI 北大核心 2016年第6期74-82,共9页 Economic Geography
基金 国家社会科学基金项目(12BJY052) 教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(12YJAZH027) 湖南省自然科学基金项目(14JJ2119)
关键词 经济关联 动态权重 溢出机理 空间溢出效应 环长株潭城市群 economic linkages dynamic weights spillover mechanism spatial spillover effects great Chang-Zhu-Tangcity clusters
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