摘要
以调试校正较高精度的ORYZA2000模型参数及高温敏感性模拟验证为目的,为模型适应性和本地化提供依据,利用江苏省9个试验点5个水稻(Oryza sativa)品种的田间观测数据及当地逐日气象数据,采用ORYZA2000最新版本(V2.13)水稻生长模型,首先挑选出5个试验点3个品种的观测数据进行模型参数适应性调试校正,确定了水稻发育生长阶段的各项参数,然后用该参数对独立样本的4个试验点2个水稻品种地上部分各器官生物量、叶面积指数动态变化过程及最终产量进行了动态模拟。通过t检验和质量评价指标对模拟结果进行了显著性检验。利用通过检验的模型及其参数在假设环境温度不同时间段的持续升高条件下,开展了高温对水稻生物量及产量影响的模拟研究,模拟结果的影响幅度与实际高温处理结果的影响幅度进行了比较。结果表明:1)经过调试校正获得较高精度的水稻发育阶段各参数,较准确地模拟了水稻生物量和叶面积指数的动态累积过程,模拟值与观测值基本一致,说明校正后参数的合理性和有效性;2)调整参数后高温敏感性模拟结果表明,孕穗期到开花期温度连续3天、5天、7天升高到35℃时,总生物量、穗生物量和总产量与对照(CK)相比分别下降了12%–25%;不同时间段连续升高到38℃时下降18%–31%;不同时间段升高到41℃时,各生物量与对照相比分别下降了20%–38%。模型模拟值与控制试验室的观测数据的下降幅度基本一致,表明经过参数校正的ORYZA2000可以应用于水稻对气温升高响应的预测。
Aims For adoption and localization of the high precision rice growth model ORYZA2000, the model parameters were calibrated and high-temperature sensitivity analysis was performed based on observed data for five rice va-rieties at nine experimental stations and daily meteorological data in Jiangsu Province. Methods The latest version of ORYZA2000 （V2.13） was used in this study. The model parameters were cali-brated using the observed data for three rice varieties at five experimental stations, and then the aboveground bio-mass, leaf area index, and final yield were estimated for two other rice varieties at four experimental stations for model validation; a t-test was performed for quality evaluation. By using the validated model and raising the temperature at different time periods, a simulation of high temperature impact on rice biomass and yield was car-ried out. The simulation results were compared with the observational data from the greenhouse experiments as-sessing the high temperature responses of the rice varieties studied. Important findings The results show that after calibration, the model parameters reliably simulated the dynam-ics of biomass accumulation and leaf area index development in the rice varieties studied;the simulated values are consistent with the observed values. The total biomass, panicle biomass, and final yield decreased by 12%-25%compared to the control （CK） when the growth temperature was raised to 35 ℃ for 3, 5 and 7 consecutive days from booting to flowering stages. Those values decreased by 18%-31%when the temperature was raised to 38 ℃ and by 20%-38%when the temperature was raised to 41 ℃ over the same periods. In general, the magnitudes of decline in the growth of rice varieties from model simulations were comparable with controlled laboratory obser-vations. ORYZA2000 model could be applied to predict rice response to temperature increase on the basis of crop parameter calibrations.
出处
《植物生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第5期515-528,共14页
Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology
基金
国家公益类气象行业专项(GYHY2011-06027)
973全球变化重大专项(2010CB951302)
中科院百人计划项目(Y3ZZ15101A)
中国科学院CAS-TEAS中心项目
关键词
生物量
高温影响
检验及评价
水稻
模拟
biomass
high-temperature influence
inspection and evaluation
rice
simulation
