摘要
高速铁路运量预测的关键是确定通道中包括高速铁路在内的各种交通方式运量的比例,而离散选择模型是进行交通方式划分预测的有效工具。基于离散选择模型的基本原理,利用2012年京沪高速铁路旅客出行调查数据,建立了包括高速铁路、飞机、长途汽车和小汽车的方式划分模型,并通过模型值与2012年实际值比较检验了模型精度。
The key to forecast the ridership of high-speed railway is to determine the proportion of all transport modes in one cor- ridor, and discrete c.hoice model is an effective tool to do transport mode split. Based on principle theory, the model for high- speed railways, airplanes, busses and cars is developed with the data of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway passenger trip sur- vey. In addition, the model precision is tested by the comparison of model values and actual values.
出处
《铁道经济研究》
2014年第2期14-18,23,共6页
Railway Economics Research
关键词
高速铁路
运量
预测
离散选择模型
方式划分
京沪高速铁路
high-speed railway
ridership
forecast
discrete choice model
mode split
Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway
