摘要
近年来,农产品价格波动越来越频繁。从理论上讲,农产品价格波动对宏观经济的影响具体表现为通货膨胀效应、财富效应和供给效应。然而,实证分析表明,我国农产品价格波动具有明显的通货膨胀效应,但财富效应和供给效应并不明显。通货膨胀效应表现在:从长期趋势看,农产品价格及其波动与PPI和CPI都具有长期均衡关系;从短期波动看,CPI与农产品价格存在互动关系。财富效应不显著的原因在于尽管农民收入水平对消费总水平影响显著,但农产品价格上涨对农民收入的影响较弱。供给效应不显著的原因在于短期内农产品价格波动对PPI没有直接影响,农产品价格是通过影响CPI间接影响PPI。因此,虽然企业利润对企业投资拉动明显,但农产品价格的波动对企业利润影响微弱。
In recent years, the price fluctuation of agricultural products is increasingly frequent. In theory, agricultural price fluctuation has effect on the , such as the inflation effect, wealth effect and supply effect. However, the empirical analysis shows that the price fluctuation of agricultural products in China has significant inflationary effect, but the wealth effect and the supply effect are not obvious. The effect of inflation performance suggests that there is a long - ran equilibrium relationship between prices volatility of agricultural products and inflation from the long - term trend perspective. Moreover, there is interaction between the CPI and the prices of agricultural products from the short - term fluctuations perspective. The wealth effect is not significant because the ratio of farmers＇inecme to total income is not high, although the income of farmer has the significant effect on total consumption. Supply effect is not significant because of the short - term price fluctuation of agricuhural products does not directly affect the PPI, but indirectly affect PPI through CPI. Therefore, the corporate profits pull enterprise investment obviously, but the influence of volatility in agricultural prices on corporate profits is weak.
出处
《哈尔滨商业大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2013年第4期93-99,106,共8页
Journal of Harbin University of Commerce:Social Science Edition
基金
黑龙江省教育厅人文社科基金项目"黑龙江省农产品价格波动的影响因素及调控研究"(12522076)
黑龙江省自然科学基金项目"黑龙江省小额农贷的风险控制研究"(G201002)
关键词
农产品价格波动
通货膨胀效应
财富效应
供给效应
price fluctuation of agricultural products
inflation effect
wealth effect
supply effect
