摘要
利用中国气象局制定的中短期天气预报质量检验办法,选择了代表不同区域地理环境的6个站点,检验并分析了吉林省数值预报业务系统短期预报各时段降水、温度、气压和风速等要素预报性能。结果表明:各时段要素预报中,降水预报TS评分0.29~0.56,正确率67.5%~82.2%;温度预报平均绝对误差≤3.7 K,均方根误差2.2~4.5;气压预报平均绝对误差≤3.5 hPa,均方根误差1.6~4.6;风速预报平均绝对误差≤2.4 m/s,均方根误差1.7~2.9。
Six stations have been selected over different area in Jilin Province.According to the method for quality verification of medium-short range weather forecast established by China Meteorological Administration,basic meteorological elements have been verified,such as precipitation,temperature,pressure and wind speed in each period of short-range forecast output by numerical prediction operational system of Jilin Province.The results show that TS of precipitation forecast is 0.29-0.56 and the accuracy of precipitation forecast is 67.5%-82.2%.Mean absolute error(MAE) of temperature forecast is less than 3.7 K and its root mean square error(RMSE) is 2.2-4.5.MAE of pressure forecast is less than 3.5 hPa and its RMSE is 1.6-4.6.MAE of wind speed forecast is less than 2.4 m/s and its RMSE is 1.7-2.9.
出处
《吉林大学学报（地球科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第S1期209-213,共5页
Journal of Jilin University：Earth Science Edition
关键词
数值预报
要素预报
检验分析
numerical prediction
element forecast
verification
