摘要
运用向量误差修正模型、Wald系数约束检验,对我国财政收支、货币供给与经济增长关系进行实证分析。研究发现:在短期内,财政收支、货币供给是经济增长的Granger原因,财政收支、经济增长是货币供给增加的Granger原因;但从长期看,财政收支、货币供给与经济增长的因果关系不显著。因此,结合当前我国人民币升值压力和通胀预期的实际,应将财政政策与货币供给政策配合使用,即数量型工具和价格型工具要搭配,短期政策和长期政策要相搭配。
This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between China＇s revenue and expenditure,monetary supply and economic growth by adopting a vector error correction model and the Wald coefficient bound test.The results indicate that in the short term,the revenue and expenditure and the monetary supply are the Granger cause for the economic growth,while the revenue and expenditure and the economic growth are the Granger cause for the increase of monetary supply;however,in the long term,there is no obvious causality between revenue and expenditure,monetary supply and economic growth.Therefore,in order to deal with the current pressure of RMB appreciation and inflation expectation China is faced with,the fiscal policy should be used in conjunction with the monetary supply policy,i.e.to match the quantitative tools with price instruments,and to match the short-term policies with the long-term policy.
出处
《当代财经》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第2期36-44,共9页
Contemporary Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(10XJY032)
关键词
财政收支
货币供给
经济增长
宏观调控
税收政策
revenue and expenditure
monetary supply
economic growth
macro-control
tax policy
