摘要
为了得到理想的航空系统客运量预测结果,引入了系统动力学预测方法。在对航空运输系统主要因素及因果关系分析的基础上,建立了航空运输客运需求量系统动力学模型,并采用历史统计数据对模型进行了仿真和验证,结果证明该模型有效可行,可以较好地克服传统预测方法的不足之处。
The system dynamics method was applied to predicting the number of passengers in air transport system; it can also effectively solve the problems in traditional forecasting methods. The system dynamics demand model of air passenger transport was established based on the analysis of main factors and their relationships in the air transport system. The model was verified by simulation by using historical statistical data. The results show that the model is effective and feasible.
出处
《交通信息与安全》
2009年第5期146-148,165,共4页
Journal of Transport Information and Safety
基金
863计划项目(批准号:2006AA12A104)
中国民航局科研基金项目(批准号:RKXZD0710)资助
关键词
航空运输系统
系统动力学
模型预测
air transport system
system dynamics
model prediction
