摘要
2002年和2003年在山东农业大学布置相关农学实验,利用便携式光合作用测定仪Licor-6400测定了冬小麦叶片光合作用速率等大量作物生理生态参数,建立了作物干旱模式,并连接区域气候模式(RegCM_NCC),在区域气候模式驱动下,通过不断变换气象初始场,对华北地区2002-2003年冬小麦生长过程中的农业干旱过程进行了单点和大范围逐日实时滚动预报。结果表明,当区域气候模式预报趋势基本正确时,在区域气候模式驱动下作物干旱模式可对单点农业干旱进行有效预测。模拟结果还表明,上述方法可对华北地区冬小麦生长过程中的农业干旱过程进行大范围的逐日实时滚动预报;相比之下,作物干旱模式与平均气候资料结合进行区域农业干旱预报则存在较大偏差。研究证明,采用气候预测与农业气象作物模式相结合,对区域农业气象灾害进行实时预报的思路可行,这将有助于克服农业气象业务服务只能回顾不能预报的弊端。
Experiments were conducted in the Shangdong Agricultural University during 2002 and 2003, and a great number of ecological parameters, such as the photosynthesis rate of winter wheat leaves, were measured using Licor-6400 Portable Photosynthesis Analyzer. Based on those parameters, a crop simulation model was established to predict the agro-drought disaster in the North China Plain by combining the model with a regional climate model （RegCM_NCC）. With various initial meteorological field, the crop model is used to simulate the agro-trought in this region. Results indicate that the prediction can fit the agro-meteorological information quite well provided that the regional climate model can offer a valid weather prediction. With the help of the regional climate model, the crop model can predict the agro-drought accurately both in the site scale and in the regional scale. In addition, the prediction results will become more accurate with the evolution of the meteorological field. An attempt was also made to predict the agro-drought by combining the crop model with averaged climate data, but the results were negative, which indicates that it is not feasible to predict the agro- drought by combining the crop model with the averaged climate data unless the prediction time is very short. This study shows that it is feasible for the agro-meteorologists to predict regional agro-meteorological disasters successfully by combining the crop simulation model with the regional climate model in the future, which will provide a powerful tool for agro-meteorologists to obtain more accurate disaster information.
出处
《科技导报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第11期33-38,共6页
Science & Technology Review
基金
国家“十一五”科技支撑计划重点项目(2006BAD04B01)
国家国际科技合作项目(2009DFA91900)
关键词
农业干旱
区域气候模式
作物模拟模型
华北平原
agro-drought prediction
regional climate model
cropsimulation model
North China Plain
