摘要
通过采用自适应权重指数平滑法,对进口车道的实时流量进行预测,建立了以定数排队理论为基础的排队长度预测模型。该模型可以实现对饱和信号交叉口排队长度的预测,预测结果具有较强的自适应性,更符合交通流的实际运行状况。实际数据验证结果表明:在拥挤的交通状态下,该模型的预测精度可达到85%以上,可以满足信号配时和交通管理的需要。
The queue length prediction model was established on the basis of the deterministic queuing theory and real time traffic flow prediction at entrance lane using the adaptive weight exponential smoothing method. This model is capable of predicting the queue length at the saturate signalized intersection, and its prediction result is strongly adaptive and in accord with the practical traffic flow condition. Practical survey data proved the prediction accuracy is above 85% under congested traffic condition, it is enough to meet the requirement of signal timing and traffic management.
出处
《吉林大学学报（工学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第6期1287-1290,共4页
Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition
基金
“863”国家高技术研究发展计划项目(2007AA11Z231)
“十一五”国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2006BAJ18B01)
关键词
交通运输系统工程
预测模型
定数排队理论
饱和信号交叉口
交通拥挤
engineering of communications and transportation system
prediction model~ deterministicqueuing theory
saturate signalized intersection
traffic congestion
