摘要
为有效减少参数不确定性对安全仪表系统安全完整性水平评估结果的影响,避免数据不充分等问题可能导致的较大评估偏差,以典型冗余结构为例,引入Monte-Carlo数值仿真方法计算平均要求时失效概率值,借助Matlab仿真,对结果进行统计特性分析。再通过与常用评估方法的比较,指出采用分布区间来描述评估结果有利于工程师更好地设计和应用安全仪表系统,总结采用Monte-Carlo方法考察参数不确定性问题的优势并提出该方法尚需改进的地方。
To decrease the influence of parameter uncertainty on safety integrity level evaluation result of safety instrumented system and to prevent large deviation caused by the lack of data, this paper, taking typical redundant structure as an example, introduces the Monte-Carlo numerical emulation method to calculate average probability of failure on demand, and makes a statistical analysis of the results with Matlab simulation. Comparison with common evaluation methods shows that using interval to describe the evaluation result is helpful for engineers to design and apply safety instrumented system better. Finally, the advantages of using Monte-Carlo method to study parameter uncertainty problems are summarized and some aspects needing further improvement are put forward.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
2008年第8期135-139,共5页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(60674064)
国家科技支撑计划课题(2006BAK01B02)
关键词
安全仪表系统
完全完整性水平
不确定性
正态分布
蒙特卡罗方法
safety instrumented system
safety integrity level
uncertainty
normal distribution
Monte-Carlo method
