摘要
通过对杭州市VLF/LF闪电监测系统与浙江省ADTD地闪监测系统2016—2020年地闪数据,从地闪次数、强度等方面进行对比,分析了不同计算方法下的雷电流幅值概率曲线的差异,利用matlab采用最小二乘曲线拟合方法对实际探测值进行拟合,得出2套系统分别适合杭州地区雷电流幅值概率计算的最佳拟合系数a,b。根据雷电产生的规律和计算得到的结果表明:ADTD正闪幅值明显高于VLF/LF系统,结合雷电起电机制和发生的规律判断,ADTD在正地闪的探测中准确性要高于VLF/LF系统;根据拟合曲线判断2套系统探测到的杭州地区正闪幅值在中值电流附近较为分散,而负闪较为集中;通过对两套系统的实际探测结果进行拟合发现负闪的累积概率误差很小,确定系数接近1,而正闪的拟合效果稍差,建议在计算绕击概率、风险评估等实际运用中,正闪雷击概率采用ADTD的拟合结果、负闪雷击概率密度采用ADTD与VLF/LF拟合结果中的较大值进行计算。
Based on the lightning datas of Hangzhou VLF/LF lightning location system and Zhejiang ADTD system from 2016 to 2020,comparative from the aspects of lightning frequency and intensitythe,analyzed the differences of lightning current amplitude probability curves under different calculation methods.The actual detection values are fitted by using the least square curve fitting method in matlab,and the best fitting coefficients a and b suitable for the calculation of lightning current amplitude probability in Hangzhou are obtained.According to the law of lightning generation and the calculation results showing that the ADTD positive lightning amplitude is significantly higher than that of the VLF/LF system.Combined with the lightning mechanism and the law of occurrence,the accuracy of ADTD in the detection of positive lightning is higher than that of the VLF/LF system.According to the fitting curve,it is judged that the positive lightning amplitude detected by the two systems in Hangzhou is relatively dispersed near the median current,while the negative lightning is relatively concentrated.By fitting the actual detection results of the two systems,it is found that the cumulative probability error of negative lightning is very small,and the determination coefficient is close to 1,while the fitting effect of positive lightning is slightly poor.So we suggested that in the practical application of calculating shielding failure probability and risk assessment,the fitting result of ADTD is used for the probability of positive lightning,and the larger value of ADTD and VLF/LF fitting results is used for the probability density of negative lightning.
作者
李强
史海峰
Li Qiang;Shi Haifeng(Hangzhou Meteorological Bureau,Hangzhou 310008,China;Zhejiang Meteorological Bureau,Hangzhou 310000,China)
出处
《科技通报》
2021年第11期32-36,84,共6页
Bulletin of Science and Technology
基金
浙江省气象局青年项目(2020QN14)
关键词
闪电定位
数据对比
曲线拟合
lightning location
data comparison
curve fitting
