摘要
针对美国5州的阿片危机,利用并改进"仓室模型"刻画阿片滥用案例的"内生增长",并利用最小二乘的思想进行参数估计.构建"流动模型",并利用元胞自动机模拟阿片药物成瘾者在州际之间的迁移和传播.将"仓室模型"与"流动模型"结合,给出了阿片危机在5州的起源地区,同时对5年内的阿片滥用案例数量进行预测,敲响了危机升级的警钟.此外,通过LASSO回归分析阿片危机与社会经济因素之间的关系.
Aiming at solving the problem of Opioid Crisis in five states of the United States,this paper applies and improves the SIR model to describe the endogenous growth of cases of opioid misuse,and employs the idea of least squares to estimate parameters.The"flow model"was constructed and cellular automata was implemented to simulate the migration and spread effects of opioid addicts between the five states.Based on models already built,the origin of the Opioid Crisis is given and the escalation is projected.Moreover,the relationship between Opioid Crisis and socio-economic factors is analyzed by LASSO regression.
作者
张笑竹
邱文昊
庄义昱
ZHANG Xiaozhu;QIU Wenhao;ZHUANG Yiyu(College of Finance and Statistics,Hunan University,Changsha,Hunan 410079,China;College of Computer Science and Electronic Engineering,Hunan University,Changsha,Hunan 410082,China)
出处
《数学建模及其应用》
2019年第4期54-63,83,共11页
Mathematical Modeling and Its Applications
关键词
阿片危机
仓室模型
元胞自动机
LASSO回归
opioid crisis
SIR model
least squares method
cellular automata
LASSO regression
