摘要
研究海上机动目标散布规律对反舰导弹作战决策具有重要意义。在分析正态圆分布下目标以确定速度和未知方向机动散布的内涵特征基础上,基于条件概率密度方法建立了CND-CS-UC散布概率密度模型,证明了CNDCS-UC散布所具有的四条重要性质,推导了目标落入正方形和圆形散布区概率的优化计算方法。理论推导与数值分析表明:直角坐标系下,CND-CS-UC散布概率密度关于过原点的任意垂面对称,概率密度等值线呈同心圆分布;极坐标系下,当目标机动距离大于3倍的初始定位均方差时,CND-CS-UC散布概率密度可用正态分布近似,两者的吻合度94.97%以上。
Research distribution rules on marine moving target is of significance in operation decision-making in anti-ship missile. On basis of analyzing the connotation of target position distribution caused by certain speed（ CS） and uncertain course（ UC） under initial circular normal distribution（ CND）,CND-CS-UC distribution probability density model is built by means of conditional probability density method. Four properties on CND-CS-UC distribution are demonstrated,and optimized computing method for target probability in square and circular distribution area is induced. As a result of theoretical derivation and numerical analysis,CND-CS-UC distribution probability density in cartesian coordinate is symmetrical on vertical spatial plane through the distribution origin,and equivalent probability density curves of CND-CS-UC distribution are concentric circles. In polar coordinate,CND-CS-UC distribution probability density is closely to normal distribution when target motion distance was greater than three times mean square deviation of locating target,and coincidence degree between CND-CS-UC and normal distribution is above 94. 97%.
出处
《指挥控制与仿真》
2017年第4期40-45,59,共7页
Command Control & Simulation
基金
"973"国家安全重大基础研究项目(61331401)
关键词
海上机动目标
散布区
概率密度
正态圆分布
目标搜索
marine moving target
uncertain distribution area
probability density
circular normal distribution
target searching
