摘要
近年来 ,我国政府和科技界十分关注气候变暖对我国经济发展可能影响的评估 ,开展了许多重大项目和课题的研究。该文仅就气候变暖对我国自然植被、农业、森林、水资源、能源利用和区域海平面上升等领域影响评估研究的若干有意义的初步结果简要归纳和评述如下 :取自不同GCM模型的未来气候变化情景下的影响评估模拟表明 ,我国的特征性自然植被类型将会发生明显的变化。同当前气候 ( 1 95 1～ 1 980年 )下的模拟分布相比 ,到 2 0 5 0年我国几乎所有地方的农业种植制度均将发生较大变化 ;气候变暖将导致复种指数增加和种植方式多样化 ,但降水与蒸散之间可能出现的负平衡和土壤水分胁迫的增加以及生育期的可能缩短 ,最终将导致我国主要作物的产量下降。气候变暖对我国水资源最明显的影响将会发生在黄淮海流域 ,这个区域的水资源供需短缺将大大提高。同时 ,气候变暖将改变我国室内取暖和降温的能源需求关系 :北方冬季取暖的能源消耗将减少 ,而南方夏季降温的能源消耗将会增加。海平面的上升将使我国三个主要沿海低洼脆弱区 ,即珠江三角洲、长江三角洲和黄河三角洲 ,面临部分遭受海水淹没的威胁。
Increasing of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere will strengthen the natural greenhouse effect, which could lead to global climate warming more than other changes. China is a large agricultural country with a large of population and relatively deficient farming lands and water resources; thus climate warming is very important to the national economy development. Therefore, the Chinese government and scientists paid great attention to the impact assessment of climate warming on the national economy in China, especially during the past 10 years. A brief description is made on major issues of climate warming impact research on the national vegetation, agriculture, forest, water resources, energy use, regional sea level rise in China, etc. As a result, all climate change scenarios derived by GCMs suggest a substantial change in the characteristic natural vegetation types. It is also shown that comparing with the distribution simulated under the normal time period of 1951 to 1980 as the present climate, by 2050 large changes in cropping systems would occur almost everywhere in China. Climate warming would lead to increasing cropping diversification and multiplication. Unfortunately, the possible net balance between precipitation and evapo transpiration would be negative and the length of growing period would be shorten; therefore, all of these would lead to the reducing grain production in China significantly due to the enhanced moisture stress in soil. The most evident influence of climate warming on water resources would happen in the Huang Huai Hai River plain and the water supply demand deficit would be substantially enhanced in this area. And also, a warmer climate for China will alter the energy demand for domestic heating and cooling, that is, reduce energy use for heating in northern China and increase energy consumption for cooling in southern China. Meanwhile, the projected sea level rise would result in partial submergence of three China's major coastal vulnerable regions, i.e. the Zhu
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2002年第6期755-766,共12页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
基金
国家"九五"重中之重科技项目"我国短期气候预测系统的研究"(96-90 8)
关键词
气候变暖
海平面上升
植被
种植制度
水资源
能源需求
中国
Climate warming impact Vegetation Cropping system Water resources Domestic energy demand
