摘要
为识别环线地铁中每位乘客的路径选择,基于北京市轨道交通自动售检票系统数据与自动车辆定位系统数据,采用统计分析方法研究地铁环线中乘客出行特征,对典型的地铁环线中乘客的出行路径选择行为进行统计推断。建立该数据的混合概率模型,推断每位乘客乘坐每列可乘列车的概率;建立地铁环线乘客列车分配模型,推断地铁环线中乘客的路径选择;通过观察模拟试验参数估计的均方误差值,验证方法的合理性。基于此,以北京地铁西直门站—望京西站构成的环线,研究地铁环线中乘客的路径选择。研究结果表明,近65%的乘客选择该地铁环线中需换乘1次但所需时间少的路径,在乘客路径选择的决策中,时间效率的考虑优先于减少换乘的便捷。
In order to identify the path selection of each passenger in the subway on the ring line,the statistical analysis methods are used to study the travel characteristics of passengers in the subway ring line based on the data of the automatic ticket sales and inspection system and the automatic vehicle positioning system data of the Beijing rail transit automatic ticketing system,and the travel path selection behavior of the passengers statistically is infered in the typical subway ring line.A mixed probability model of this data is established to infer the probability of each passenger riding on each available train;a passenger train allocation model in the subway on the ring line is established to infer the path selection of passengers in the subway loop;by observing the mean squared error value estimated by the simulation experimental parameters,the rationality of the method is verified.Based on this,the path selection of passengers on the subway loop line is studied with the ring line composed of Xizhimen Station and Wangjing West Station of the Beijing Subway to make an example analysis.The results of the study show that nearly 65%of passengers choose the route that requires a one-time transfer but takes less time on the subway loop line,and in the decision of passenger route selection,the consideration of time efficiency takes precedence over the consideration of the convenience of reducing transfers.
作者
金童
牟唯嫣
JIN Tong;MU Weiyan(School of Science,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044)
出处
《北京建筑大学学报》
2023年第5期100-107,共8页
Journal of Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(12171462)。
关键词
城市轨道交通
地铁环线
路径选择
客流特征
AFC与AVL数据
urban rail transit
metro circle line
path selection
passenger flow characteristics
AFC and AVL data
