摘要
电镀场地时空分布深刻地影响电镀场地的重金属等污染物的排放特征,进而影响生态环境和人体健康。为解析和预测电镀场地时空分布格局,采用统计分析、核密度估计、时序模型等,分析了1990—2020年京津冀电镀场地的时空演变特征及其驱动因子,预测了2025年电镀场地数量变化的关键驱动因子及场地数量的空间分布格局。发现1990—2005年京津冀电镀场地数量空间分布格局的变化较大,场地数量增加了1.8倍,从主要集中于天津市和北京市,明显发展至周边多个地区;2005—2020年电镀场地数量空间分布格局的变化较小,场地数量增加了0.8倍,形成了以天津市最多、环绕天津市的城市次之、其他城市较少的空间分布格局;京津冀电镀场地数量的变化基本符合“S”型增长模式,经历了逐步增长期(1990—2001年)、快速增长期(2002—2016年)和平稳期(2017—2020年);天津市对京津冀电镀场地数量增长模式的贡献较大。相关分析显示,地区生产总值、第二产业总产值、常住人口数量等驱动因子与场地数量呈极显著正相关关系,基于打分量化的相关政策因素与场地数量呈极显著负相关关系。发现逐步增长期和平稳期的主要驱动因子为经济发展速度和政策因素,快速增长期的主要驱动因子为经济发展速度。构建的时序模型较好地预测了2025年京津冀电镀场地数量变化的关键驱动因子和场地数量的空间分布格局。预测结果显示,与2020年相比,2025年电镀场地数量空间分布格局的变化较小,场地数量预计将减少5%。研究结果对电镀场地污染预测与监管、生态环境宏观政策及电镀行业发展规划的制定有重要意义。
Spatial-temporal distribution of electroplating sites at regional and national scales impacts the release of pollutants,including heavy metals from electroplating sites,which further influences the eco-environment and human health.Statistical analyses and kernel density estimation were used to analyze the spatial-temporal distribution of electroplating sites and the driving factors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1990 to 2020.Time series models were used to predict the spatial distribution of the driving factors and the number of electroplating sites in the region in 2025.The spatial distribution pattern of electroplating sites in the region changed greatly during 1990-2005 and the number of electroplating sites increased by 1.8 times.The electroplating sites which were mainly distributed in Tianjin and Beijing notably increased around the two cities during this period.The spatial distribution pattern of electroplating sites in the region changed slightly during 2005-2020 and the number of electroplating sites increased by 0.8 times.In terms of the number of electroplating sites,Tianjin had the largest number,followed by the surrounding cities and other cities.Temporal changes in the number of electroplating sites followed a S-type growth curve.The 1990-2020 period was divided into a gradual growth period(1990-2001),a rapid growth period(2002-2016)and a steady period(2017-2020).The number of electroplating sites showed significant positive correlations with the driving factors,including gross regional product,total output value of the secondary sector of the economy,resident population,and significant negative correlations with quantified policy factors.The gradual growth period and the steady period were found to be primarily driven by the rate of economic growth and policy factors,whereas the rapid growth period was found to be primarily driven by the rate of economic growth.The established time series models well predicted the spatial distribution of the key driving factors and the number of electropl
作者
孙正
曹亚非
王德彩
刘峰
宋效东
张甘霖
吴华勇
SUN Zheng;CAO Yafei;WANG Decai;LIU Feng;SONG Xiaodong;ZHANG Ganlin;WU Huayong(State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture/Institute of Soil Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,P.R.China;College of forestry,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450003,P.R.China;Periodical Office of Jiangsu Agricultural Science,Nanjing 210014,P.R.China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,P.R.China;Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Science/Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,P.R.China)
出处
《生态环境学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第1期183-194,共12页
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1800104,2018YFC1801806)。
关键词
电镀场地
时空分布
政策量化
时序模型
京津冀地区
electroplating industry
spatial-temporal distribution
policy factor quantification
time series model
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
