摘要
利用国际农产品贸易政策分析模型,设定撒哈拉以南非洲11个主要水稻生产国家在2020—2040年采纳中国杂交水稻的两种模拟情景,第一种情景为仅在灌溉区采纳,第二种情景为灌溉区和雨养区同时采纳,两种情景的最大采纳率分别为5%、20%和50%,以考察非洲国家推广中国杂交水稻的影响。结果显示,当在11国灌溉区推广杂交稻的情境下,11个国家的水稻平均单产和收获面积都有所增加,塞拉利昂、马里和几内亚将在2030年实现水稻净出口;若主要水稻生产国能够加强农田水利灌溉建设,在雨养区推广中国杂交水稻,则在20%和50%的最大采纳率情况下,撒哈拉以南非洲将分别在2036和2030年实现水稻净出口。因此,撒哈拉以南非洲具有很大的水稻生产潜力,但能否实现取决于良种的采纳率和水利设施的建设和完善。对此,可将发展杂交水稻作为中非农业合作领域的重点,不仅为稳定全球粮食安全做出贡献,还能一定程度上满足中国的水稻需求。
Based on the actual yield data collected from the experimental centers, it is assumed that 11 major riceproducing countries of SSA will adopt Chinese hybrid rice varieties by 5%, 20% and 50%, respectively, from 2020 to2040. This paper analyzes the global and regional impacts of three scenarios, using International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade(IMPACT) developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute(IFPRI). It sets 2 scenarios: adopting hybrid rice in irrigated area, adopting it both in irrigated and rain-fed areas.The model predicts that the adoption of Chinese hybrid rice in SSA will increase the average rice yield and harvested rice area in these countries. Sierra Leone, Mali and Guinea will be able to achieve self-sufficiency by 2030. If the irrigation and water conservancy construction can be strengthened in SSA, and hybrid rice could be planted in the rain-fed areas,when the max adoption rates are 20% and 50%, SSA will become net exporters of rice in 2036 and 2030, respectively. So sub-Saharan Africa countries have a huge potential for rice production, and the fulfilling of it depends on the adoption rate of improved seeds and the irrigation construction. Therefore, the development of hybrid rice in Africa could be the focus of China-Africa agricultural collaboration. It will not only contribute to global food security, but also meet the need for rice in China to some extent.
作者
王静怡
张悦
陈志钢
聂凤英
WANG Jingyi;ZHANG Yue;CHEN Kevin;NIE Fengying(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100081, China;China Academy for Rural Development, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, Zhejiang, China;International Food Policy Research Institute, Beijing 100081, China)
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第4期155-163,231,共10页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金国际合作项目(71761147005)
中国农业科学院创新工程项目(CAAS-ASTIP-2016-AII)
