摘要
工业绿色发展是国家社会经济可持续发展的基础。运用系统动力学的方法构建中国工业绿色发展系统动力学模型,并通过调节3种类型环境规制政策变量的参数,模拟工业绿色发展系统在不同环境规制政策模式下的发展趋势。研究结果表明:适度降低命令控制型环境规制强度可以在污染小幅增加的情况下取得经济的快速增长;增强市场型规制可能会暂时降低工业绿色发展指数,但长期来看有利于中国工业的绿色发展;提高自愿型环境规制强度,可以在保持工业增长水平的情况下减少污染排放与能源消耗;但单独使用各类环境规制工具,都会在取得一定规制成果的同时产生某些负面效应,而3种规制工具的组合使用则可以取长补短,实现环境与经济的共同发展。据此,提出健全命令控制型环境规制政策工具、合理设置市场型规制工具的强度、强化自愿型环境规制工具的运用等政策建议,以促进我国工业的绿色发展。
Green industrial development is the basis of social and economic sustainability. This paper establishes a system dynamics model of green industrial development through applying the method of system dynamics, which consists of five subsystems： industry, environment, energy, society and policy. The paper verifies the validity and stability of the model through simulation. By adjusting parameters of policy variables, the paper simulates development trends of green industrial development system under different environmental regulations. The result shows that judging from a single policy, command-and-control environmental regulation significantly inhibits the growth of industrial added value, though it is able to reduce environmental pollution. Market-based environmental regulation may decrease the index of green industrial development in short term. In long run, however, it plays an important role in promoting the development. Voluntary environmental regulations are conductive to the common development of environment, energy and economy, and help to achieve green industrial development. Conclusions reached that single environmental regulation is a two-edged sword, and that the best outcome will appear only when regulations are combined together. Therefore, the proposal is to optimize the combination of environmental regulations, and complement the advantages of each environmental regulation, moderately reduce command-and-control environmen- tal regulation and form a policy system dominated by market-based and voluntary environmental regulations.
作者
张旭
王纬文
ZHANG Xu;WANG Wei-wen(Faculty of Management and Economics, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China)
出处
《科技与管理》
2018年第1期34-44,共11页
Science-Technology and Management
基金
国家自然科学基金重大国际(地区)合作研究项目(71320107006)
关键词
工业绿色发展
环境规制
政策效应
系统动力学
green industry development
environmental regulations
policy
system dynamics
