摘要
基于国家统计局城镇住户调查(UHS)2002—2007年的家户数据,本文研究土地供给、住房价格和居民储蓄的关系。研究表明,住房价格上涨使得居民不得不"为买房而储蓄",从而提高居民储蓄率:住房价格上升1个百分点,城镇居民储蓄率将上升0.067个百分点,这解释了2002—2007年间我国城镇居民储蓄率上升的45%。进一步研究发现,住房价格上涨主要影响收入水平较低、没有住房或住房面积较小的家庭;同时,住房价格对年轻人和老年人的影响较大。以土地供给作为住房价格的工具变量有效缓解了内生性问题,2SLS回归结果表明,土地供给越少,住房价格水平越高,居民储蓄率越高。本文的结论对于降低地方政府"土地财政"依赖程度、建立扩大消费需求的长效机制等相关政策讨论具有一定的现实意义。
Based on China＇s Urban Household Survey （UHS） conducted by National Bureau of Statistics from 2002 to 2007, this paper studies the relationship between government land supply, housing prices and urban household savings in China. The results reveal that the rising housing prices have induced people to save more： one percentage point increase in housing prices have led urban household savings rate to rise by 0. 067 percentage points, which account for 45% of the increasing saving rate during 2002 and 2007. Further research shows that the rising housing prices have mainly affected people with lower income levels, rent a house or own a small house. Meanwhile, the housing prices have not only affected the young people, but also the old people. We use government land supply as an instrument of housing price to alleviate the endogeneity problem. 2SLS regression results show that the less the land supply, the higher the level of housing prices, the higher the household savings rate. This study implies that it is difficult to stimulate domestic demand effectively by targeting on consumption itself. To expand consumption demand in long run, the government should focus on the supply side. The most important way is to reform the existing fiscal system and reduce local government＇s incentive to create profits from land.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第1期110-122,共13页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71003112
71273289)的阶段性成果
教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"
国家社科基金重大招标项目(09&ZD020
12&ZD028)的资助
