摘要
我国居民消费需求不足现象近年来成为一个被普遍关注的问题。笔者的理论分析表明收入分配差距可能是引起居民平均消费倾向减小的一个原因。同时笔者选取我国1978—2008年的基尼系数和城乡居民平均消费倾向数据,在数据平稳化处理的基础上,用E-G两步法对数据进行协整分析和格兰杰因果检验。研究结果发现城镇居民平均消费倾向与基尼系数之间存在长期稳定均衡关系,并且互为格兰杰原因;而农村居民平均消费倾向与基尼系数间不存在长期均衡关系。这一研究结果为政府制定缩小收入差距和促进居民消费需求的政策提供了决策参考。
In recent years,the residents' insufficient consumption needs have become a hot topic in china.The theoretical analysis indicates that the disparity of income distribution lowered the average propensity to consume.Base on the data tranquilization,the paper set up the Cointegration and granger causality test which used the data of gini coefficient and the residents' average propensity to consume.The result of research showed that the residents' average propensity to consume had a long-term stability equilibrium relationship with gini coefficient,and Each is the granger reasons;Rural inhabitants' average propensity to consume didn't have a long-term stability equilibrium relationship with gini coefficient.The research conclusions provided reference for the government to reduce the income gap,boost the consumer demand.
出处
《财经问题研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第6期110-115,共6页
Research On Financial and Economic Issues
关键词
消费需求
基尼系数
E-G两步法
格兰杰因果检验
consumer demand
gini coefficient
E-G two stage method
granger causality test
