摘要
基于华北五省(市)64个基本气象站的1961—2009年逐年逐月气温、降水资料,利用泰森权重计算了华北地区面平均降水及面平均气温,并建立了7个长序列气象站的气温、降水与面平均值的回归方程,展延了研究区1951—1960年面平均降水和气温资料。对展延后的1951—2009年序列数据,应用Mann-Kendall检验、Mann-Whitney检验、9 a滑动平均等方法进行趋势分析,分析结果显示:该区59 a间年气温上升了1.5℃,年气温序列存在显著上升趋势,年气温序列在1993年前后有一个突变点,年气温距平以1989年为低温期与高温期的分界线,年气温平均每10 a增长2.2%;年降水序列无显著趋势,亦无显著跳跃趋势,年降水距平大致以1976年为多雨期与少雨期的分界线,年降水平均每10 a增长-1.3%。研究成果为深入分析华北地区气候变化规律、未来气候变化影响,以及水资源对气候变化的响应提供了基础。
Annual and monthly observed temperature and precipitation data at 64 weather stations in five provinces of North China are used to estimate the areal temperature and precipitation using the Thiessen polygon method.The regression equations between the observed temperature/precipitation at seven stations with long time-series records and areal magnitude from 1961 to 2009 were then built.The areal temperature/precipitation time series was extended back to 1951 through the seven stations with long time-series records.With this extended dataset,the temperature/precipitation trend for 1951-2009 was investigated with Mann-Kendall,Mann-Whitney and the moving average method.The results indicate that： 1） the temperature increased by 1.5 ℃ during the past 59 years and showed a statistically significant increasing trend with the magnitude of about 2.2% per decade;the time series of annual temperature appeared step change around 1993 and the temperature anomalies changed from negative periods to positive periods from 1989.2） The annual precipitation did not present a statistically significant trend and showed a decline of 1.3% per decade;the precipitation anomaly showed that the year 1976 is the turning point from wet to dry.The result of this paper can be used as a reference for further analysis of climate change and its impacts as well as the responses of water resources to climate change in North China.
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第11期1930-1941,共12页
Journal of Natural Resources
基金
国家重点基础发展研究计划(2010CB428406)
国家科技支撑计划(2006BAC08B0408)
国家自然科学基金(40901024)
关键词
华北地区
气温
降水
序列展延
North China
temperature
precipitation
time series extension
