摘要
人口老龄化现已成为当今主要的人口问题之一,并引起越来越多的关注,人口老龄化进程与老年人口空间分布特征研究是未来人口问题研究的一个重要分支。本文基于ESDA全局和局部空间自相关分析,利用北京市第四次和第五次人口普查数据以及1995和2005年1%人口抽样调查数据,对北京市县域尺度老龄人口分布总体和局部空间差异的变化趋势、特征进行了初步探索。结果表明,北京市老龄人口空间分布各区县差异较大,且呈现出明显的圈层结构特征,中心四城区老龄人口比重较高,近郊区老龄人口比重较全市平均水平低,远郊区老年人口比重又有所回升;同时,北京地区老年人口各区县的空间分布差异随着时间的推移而不断扩大,中心老城区呈现不断增强的集聚趋势,而远郊区的老年人口扩散效应明显大于集聚效应。
Aging of the population has become one of the major problems and has received increasing attention from both researchers and policy makers at all levels. Study on the process of population aging and the spatial distribution of the elderly will be an important branch of population research in the future. The paper identifies the dynamic spatial distribution of aging population during 1985 - 2000 in Beijing at county level. We apply the recently developed methods of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis to a longitudinal agingpopulation dataset, which is derived from 1990 and 2000 National Population Census, and 1% Population Sample Survey in 1995 and 2005. It is found that the spatial distribution of the elderly population in Beijing presents an obvious layered spatial structure, the proportions of aging population in the central four districts in Beijing are higher than that of the others. Moreover, the proportions of elderly population in the inner suburban districts are lower than the average value of Beijing. However, the exurban proportions of elderly population ascend to certain extent. Meanwhile, the spatial distribution difference of the elderly among districts has kept expanding. The proportions of elderly population in central districts show an increasing agglomeration trend, while the expansion of elderly population is much greater that of the agglomeration effect in exurban areas.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第11期131-138,共8页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(编号:KZCX2-YW-Q10-4)
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40971076)
