摘要
根据贵州省1978～2007年的统计资料,运用协整分析与Granger因果关系检验法对其经济发展、人口增长与耕地资源之间动态关系进行了计量分析,结果表明:①贵州耕地数量与人口、固定资产投资及GDP都是非平稳的时间序列,它们之间存在协整关系,且人口、固定资产投资及GDP是耕地数量变化的单向Granger原因;②人口增长、固定资产投资及GDP增长是其耕地减少的重要驱动力,尤其与人口的关系更为密切。因此,走耕地资源可持续发展的道路,关键在于控制人口数量,并采取多样化的措施提高经济发展质量、加强耕地质量保护,集约利用土地以提高耕地的经济产出能力。
Based on the statistical data in Guizhou Province from 1978 to 2007,the dynamic relationships among cultivated land resources,economic development and population growth were analyzed by using the method of co-integration analysis and Granger causality test. The results showed that the variables of cultivated land quantity and economic development,population growth,fixed asset investment were non-stationary time series. A co-integration relation was found among cultivated land resources,economic development and population growth. And economic development,population growth,fixed asset investment were unilateral Granger causes of arable-land quantity. Economic development,population growth and fixed asset investment were the dominant driving factors in the decrease of cultivated land in Guizhou Province. In particular,its relationship with the population was more close. Therefore,the control of population quantity was the key for taking the road to the sustainable development of cultivated land resources. A variety of measures should be adopted to improve the quality of economic development,enhance the quality of the protection of cultivated land and intensive use of land in order to enhance the ability of economic output of cultivated land.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2010年第14期7712-7716,共5页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
基金
贵州省教育厅硕士点项目(08SSD007)
贵州师范大学博士基金(2008)资助
关键词
人口增长
经济发展
耕地资源
贵州省
Population growth
Economic development
Cultivated land resources
Guizhou Province
