摘要
本文在假设所给数据完全真实的前提下,对长江流域的水质特征进行了分析。首先,采用模糊综合分析指数(FCI)对由多种模糊因素影响的水质进行综合评价。将所得的数据制成"FCI信息表格"。在污染源定位问题上,我们引入等效污染源的概念,利用简化的一维水质扩散模型对污染物的扩散进行了简单的计算机仿真。在长江水质的预测问题中,将已有水分为A(饮用水)、B(Ⅳ、Ⅴ)和C(劣Ⅴ)三类。鉴于约束条件的存在,我们定义了相对比的概念,在进行过突变数值的剔除之后,我们采用灰色GM(1,1)带有修正因子的预测模型对两个相对比进行预测。在预测排污量的控制时,我们通过灰色GM(1,1)模型预测出了排污量的变化,但是由于10年的长江总流量是一个随机数组,基本没有规律,我们假设长江每年的水流量服从正态分布,给出了置信水平为0.95和0.9的长江总流量的单侧置信下限,然后给出了置信水平分别为0.95和0.9的每年的处理污水状况,并对两种置信水平分别做了符合实际的分析。
Supposing the data provided is absolutely authentic, the thesis analyzes the water quality of the Yangtse River, Firstly, it makes a comprehensive evaluation of the water quality affected by manifold factor by using the FCI FCI information table is formed with these data. We introduce the concept of equivalent contamination when pitching the contamination. Simple computer simulation on the contamination diffusion is done based upon the simplified modle of one-dimensional water diffusion. On the matter of Yangtes River quality prediction, the water is divided into three categories, that is, A （drinking water）, B （IV,V） and C （inferior V）. As the restriction exists, we has defined the concept of comparative ratio. After eliminating the mutation variable, we predict the comparative ratio according to the GM（1, 1） predicting-motile with revised factors. When forecasting the control on the contamination quantity, we get it by the GM（1, 1） modle. However, total flux of yangtse River in the 10 years is stochastic array almost without rule. Thus we assume it applies to the normal school with low confidence level of 0.90-0.95. The confidence level of annual sewage disposal is 0.95 and 0.90. Practical analysis is done to testify the result.
出处
《工程数学学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第7期53-58,共6页
Chinese Journal of Engineering Mathematics
关键词
模糊综合评价
置信水平
blur comprehensive evaluation
confidence level
