摘要
本文根据最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数理论,应用趋势预测分析和回归分析方法,建立研究区域粮食安全状况预测模型,进行预测分析研究。论文主要以陕西省关中地区为例进行分析与实践论证。结果为,1999年关中地区粮食处于安全状态,对于各个地区而言,西安和铜川的粮食状况不容乐观;而宝鸡、咸阳、渭南和杨陵区粮食状况相对安全。特别是杨陵区,在农业科技不断进步的作用下,耕地生产力水平提高,因此粮食状况最安全。到2015年如果人均粮食消费以小康水平记,关中地区耕地承受压力明显增加,甚至超过了耕地压力安全警戒线。关中地区各地耕地压力指数都比1999年的要大,特别是西安和铜川。另外,在粮食增长的同时,需加大灌溉用水,机械、化肥等物质生产资料的投入,必将导致粮食价格上涨,从而影响社会经济;而且,大量的化肥使用威胁生态系统安全。为防止关中出现粮食及相关问题,应限制耕地流失,加大农业科技投入,发展高效生态农业,促进农民产粮积极性。
This paper discusses grain security in Guanzhong basin based on the model of cultivated land pressure index and minimum area of per capita cultivated land through using Lotus 123 for Windows software and setting up the databases of “ people-cultivated land-grain production ”. The area of cultivated land and population of the region in 2015 were predicted and regression analytic approach was adopted for estimation of total grain output and farmland productivity, calculating the minimum area of per capita farmland and pressure index of cultivated land in 2015 in the region. At the same time chemical fertilize application, mechanical demand and irrigating water consumption for agricultural production by 2015 were also predicted in the region. In addition, possible socioeconomic and environmental problems caused by grain production were estimated and recommendations were suggested. The research results shown that: 1) minimum area of per capita cultivated land in Guanzhong basin in 1999 was 0.77 hm\+2 and pressure index of cultivated land was 0.88. It implies the grain supply in the region is generally abundant. For sub-regions, the grain supply in Xian and Tongchuan is not optimistic and grain supply does not meet its demand. Grain supply in Baoji, Xianyang , Weinan and Yanglin are relatively ample;2) It is predicted that grain yield per unit land and population would increase constantly by 2015, but the cultivated land would decrease continuously. Under the grain consumption level for well-off society, cultivated land pressure index K is 1.01. It implies that by 2015 the cultivated land pressure in Guanzhong basin would obviously increase compared with 1999 and would exceed the safe cordon of cultivated land pressure.The indexes in 2015 among sub-districts of Guanzhong basin would exceed the level in 1999, especially in Xi'an and Tongchuan. With the grain demand increase, more and more inputs such as machinery, chemical fertilizer would be needed and grain price would hike by a large margin, thus foundation for
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第4期89-94,共6页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40371003)
教育部重点项目(编号:01158)。
