摘要
外国直接投资 (FDI)除了能够从资本形成、技术扩散和促进竞争等角度刺激发展中国家的经济增长 ,还会对一国的国际收支产生影响。如果FDI给发展中国家带来的债务负担超过其偿还能力 ,必然会给发展中国家带来国际收支危机。但是 ,由于FDI将同时影响一国的生产、出口和进口 ,因此需要全面地分析其对国际收支的影响。论文构建了一个差分系统 ,考察了FDI通过九种渠道影响东道国国际收支的长期动态效应。结果发现 ,FDI的利润回流虽然最终会超过FDI的净流入 ,但是 ,由于存在FDI的进出口行为 ,FDI对国际收支的净效应并不一定为逆差。在此基础上 ,论文分析了FDI对东道国国际收支的净效应在长期内为逆差还是顺差的条件 ,并讨论了这种差额是否能趋于稳定。论文还根据这两个命题 ,简要考察了FDI对中国国际收支的长期动态影响。
FDI can stimulate the economic development of developing countries from the channel of capital formation, technology progress and competition promotion. FDI can also affect developing country's balance of payments. If the stock of FDI liabilities will grow much faster than the capacity to service those liabilities, a financial crisis will happen finally. However, because FDI also affects production, exports and imports, we need a more comprehensive model to analysis its net effect on the balance of payments. This paper analyses the dynamic effect of FDI on the balance of payments of the host country in a system of difference equations and finds that the net effect is not always negative because of the pattern of trade of FDI, even though the outflows of profits of FDI are in excess of the amount of net inflow of FDI. This paper brings forward two propositions. One is on the condition whether the net effect of FDI on the balance of payments is positive or negative, the other is about whether the net effect of FDI on the balance of payments is stable or not in long time. According to the two propositions, this paper investigates the long-run dynamic effect of FDI on Chinese balance of payments.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2004年第11期37-46,共10页
Economic Research Journal
