摘要
本文选取40家ST公司和80家非ST公司作为财务困境与非财务困境样本,考察了现金流量信息在财务困境预测中的信息含量。研究发现:(1)在我国上市公司陷入财务困境前1年,经营性现金流量的相对信息含量仅次于资产报酬率,而在财务困境前2年,经营性现金流量的相对信息含量仅次于资产周转率,因此经营性现金流量的相对信息含量具有一定的稳定性;(2)无论在财务困境前1年还是前2年,经营性现金流量在会计比率的基础上均具有显著的增量信息含量,而在财务困境前2年,投资性现金流量也具有增量信息含量,同时加入经营性现金流量和投资性现金流量可使模型总误判率最低。本文的研究结果为今后财务困境预测研究充分挖掘现金流量的预测价值提供了实证依据。
Using 40 ST and 80 non-St firms as sample for financially distressed and non-depressed companies, this study tests the information content of cash flow information in the financial distress prediction. The results of this study show that (1) one year before our country's listed companies get into financial distress, the relative information content of operational cash flows is only second to assets returns rate , while two years before the financial distress, the relative information content of operational cash flows is only second to assets circulation rate, therefore the relative information content of operational cash flow has some stability (2)No matter it is one year or two years before the financial distress, the operational cash flows has remarkably incremental information content on the basis of accounting ratio. However two years before the financial distress, investment cash flows ,too, has the incremental information content. Meanwhile adding operational cash flows and investment cash flows can make the best prediction efficiency. The result of this study empirically provides foundation for exploiting the prediction value of the cash flow of financial distress prediction for the future.
出处
《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》
CSSCI
2004年第8期26-31,共6页
Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目
项目号为70372035。
关键词
财务困境
现金流量
信息含量
Financial Distress
Cash Flows
Information Content
